Re: crush multipick anomaly

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Anyway, here's my simple simulation. It might be helpful for testing
ideas quickly: https://gist.github.com/anonymous/929d799d5f80794b293783acb9108992

Below is the output using the P(pick small | first pick not small)
observation, using OSDs having weights 3, 3, 3, & 1 respectively. It
seems to *almost* work, but only when we have just one small OSD.

See the end of the script for other various ideas.

-- Dan

> python mpa.py
OSDs (id: weight): {0: 3, 1: 3, 2: 3, 3: 1}

Expected PGs per OSD:       {0: 90000, 1: 90000, 2: 90000, 3: 30000}

Simulating with existing CRUSH

Observed:                   {0: 85944, 1: 85810, 2: 85984, 3: 42262}
Observed for Nth replica:   [{0: 29936, 1: 30045, 2: 30061, 3: 9958},
{0: 29037, 1: 29073, 2: 29041, 3: 12849}, {0: 26971, 1: 26692, 2:
26882, 3: 19455}]

Now trying your new algorithm

Observed:                   {0: 89423, 1: 89443, 2: 89476, 3: 31658}
Observed for Nth replica:   [{0: 30103, 1: 30132, 2: 29805, 3: 9960},
{0: 29936, 1: 29964, 2: 29796, 3: 10304}, {0: 29384, 1: 29347, 2:
29875, 3: 11394}]


On Fri, Feb 3, 2017 at 4:26 PM, Dan van der Ster <dan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> On Fri, Feb 3, 2017 at 3:47 PM, Sage Weil <sweil@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> On Fri, 3 Feb 2017, Loic Dachary wrote:
>>> On 01/26/2017 12:13 PM, Loic Dachary wrote:
>>> > Hi Sage,
>>> >
>>> > Still trying to understand what you did :-) I have one question below.
>>> >
>>> > On 01/26/2017 04:05 AM, Sage Weil wrote:
>>> >> This is a longstanding bug,
>>> >>
>>> >>    http://tracker.ceph.com/issues/15653
>>> >>
>>> >> that causes low-weighted devices to get more data than they should. Loic's
>>> >> recent activity resurrected discussion on the original PR
>>> >>
>>> >>    https://github.com/ceph/ceph/pull/10218
>>> >>
>>> >> but since it's closed and almost nobody will see it I'm moving the
>>> >> discussion here.
>>> >>
>>> >> The main news is that I have a simple adjustment for the weights that
>>> >> works (almost perfectly) for the 2nd round of placements.  The solution is
>>> >> pretty simple, although as with most probabilities it tends to make my
>>> >> brain hurt.
>>> >>
>>> >> The idea is that, on the second round, the original weight for the small
>>> >> OSD (call it P(pick small)) isn't what we should use.  Instead, we want
>>> >> P(pick small | first pick not small).  Since P(a|b) (the probability of a
>>> >> given b) is P(a && b) / P(b),
>>> >
>>> >>From the record this is explained at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability#Kolmogorov_definition
>>> >
>>> >>
>>> >>  P(pick small | first pick not small)
>>> >>  = P(pick small && first pick not small) / P(first pick not small)
>>> >>
>>> >> The last term is easy to calculate,
>>> >>
>>> >>  P(first pick not small) = (total_weight - small_weight) / total_weight
>>> >>
>>> >> and the && term is the distribution we're trying to produce.
>>> >
>>> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability describs A && B (using a non ascii symbol...) as the "probability of the joint of events A and B". I don't understand what that means. Is there a definition somewhere ?
>>> >
>>> >> For exmaple,
>>> >> if small has 1/10 the weight, then we should see 1/10th of the PGs have
>>> >> their second replica be the small OSD.  So
>>> >>
>>> >>  P(pick small && first pick not small) = small_weight / total_weight
>>> >>
>>> >> Putting those together,
>>> >>
>>> >>  P(pick small | first pick not small)
>>> >>  = P(pick small && first pick not small) / P(first pick not small)
>>> >>  = (small_weight / total_weight) / ((total_weight - small_weight) / total_weight)
>>> >>  = small_weight / (total_weight - small_weight)
>>> >>
>>> >> This is, on the second round, we should adjust the weights by the above so
>>> >> that we get the right distribution of second choices.  It turns out it
>>> >> works to adjust *all* weights like this to get hte conditional probability
>>> >> that they weren't already chosen.
>>> >>
>>> >> I have a branch that hacks this into straw2 and it appears to work
>>> >
>>> > This is https://github.com/liewegas/ceph/commit/wip-crush-multipick
>>>
>>> In
>>>
>>> https://github.com/liewegas/ceph/commit/wip-crush-multipick#diff-0df13ad294f6585c322588cfe026d701R316
>>>
>>> double neww = oldw / (bucketw - oldw) * bucketw;
>>>
>>> I don't get why we need  "* bucketw" at the end ?
>>
>> It's just to keep the values within a reasonable range so that we don't
>> lose precision by dropping down into small integers.
>>
>> I futzed around with this some more last week trying to get the third
>> replica to work and ended up doubting that this piece is correct.  The
>> ratio between the big and small OSDs in my [99 99 99 99 4] example varies
>> slightly from what I would expect from first principles and what I get out
>> of this derivation by about 1%.. which would explain the bias I as seeing.
>>
>> I'm hoping we can find someone with a strong stats/probability background
>> and loads of free time who can tackle this...
>>
>
> I'm *not* that person, but I gave it a go last weekend and realized a
> few things:
>
> 1. We should add the additional constraint that for all PGs assigned
> to an OSD, 1/N of them must be primary replicas, 1/N must be
> secondary, 1/N must be tertiary, etc. for N replicas/stripes. E.g. for
> a 3 replica pool, the "small" OSD should still have the property that
> 1/3rd are primaries, 1/3rd are secondary, 1/3rd are tertiary.
>
> 2. I believe this is a case of the balls-into-bins problem -- we have
> colored balls and weighted bins. I didn't find a definition of the
> problem where the goal is to allow users to specify weights which must
> be respected after N rounds.
>
> 3. I wrote some quick python to simulate different reweighting
> algorithms. The solution is definitely not obvious - I often thought
> I'd solved it (e.g. for simple OSD weight sets like 3, 3, 3, 1) - but
> changing the OSDs weights to e.g. 3, 3, 1, 1 completely broke things.
> I can clean up and share that python if it's can help.
>
> My gut feeling is that because CRUSH trees and rulesets can be
> arbitrarily complex, the most pragmatic & reliable way to solve this
> problem is to balance the PGs with a reweight-by-pg loop at crush
> compilation time. This is what admins should do now -- we should just
> automate it.
>
> Cheers, Dan
>
> P.S. -- maybe these guys can help: http://math.stackexchange.com/
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