SFGate: US air travel options shrink amid carrier strife

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Wednesday, June 4, 2008 (AP)
US air travel options shrink amid carrier strife
By DAVE CARPENTER, AP Business Writer


   (06-04) 14:41 PDT Chicago (AP) --
   First it was soaring ticket prices and vanishing bargain fares, then new
baggage fees. Now air travelers are facing dwindling choices for when they
can fly and where — even to such popular tourist destinations as Las
Vegas and Orlando.
   The squeeze, a byproduct of record oil prices that are pushing airlines
toward financial disaster, accelerated Wednesday when United Airlines
announced plans to take 70 more jets out of service and cut domestic
capacity by 17 to 18 percent in 2008-09. Its discount unit Ted will be
shut down and 1,100 additional jobs eliminated, with more to follow.
   That came two weeks after a similar move by AMR Corp.'s American Airline=
s,
the only U.S. carrier larger than United, which said it would slash
domestic capacity 11 to 12 percent after the peak summer travel season.
American already has begun eliminating flights, as have No. 3 Delta Air
Lines Inc. and others.
   That's bad news for travelers, especially those who fly out of smaller
regional airports that are losing flights and service, and it's almost
certain to get worse unless oil prices drop and take the pressure off
airlines to keep shrinking. "For the next year or so, it's going to be
gloom and doom" in terms of fares and flight options, said air travel
expert Tom Parsons.
   While United didn't specify routes or flights to be trimmed, the airlines
already have begun targeting less profitable flights even if they are to
leisure destinations with strong demand. Several carriers have cut back on
service to Las Vegas, Honolulu and elsewhere; Delta's service to and from
Orlando, Fla., is down 45 percent from a year ago.
   While demand for tickets to those destinations remains solid, the airlin=
es
say they have to focus on higher-priced and more profitable routes in the
face of sky-high fuel prices.
   Airline consultant Robert Mann said the tourism and travel industries as=
 a
whole are subject to "serious collateral damage," with a likely drop in
air travelers to hotels and resorts in places that have flourished with
the proliferation of low air fares.
   The outlook may be grimmest of all for airlines that don't cut back enou=
gh
to survive oil prices trading above $122 a barrel even after a decline
from $135. That's still well more than double the $50-a-barrel price that
United pegged its business plan to after emerging from bankruptcy in 2006.
   "Some airlines will likely go bankrupt and cease operating," Lehman
Brothers analyst Joseph Campbell said in a note to investors Wednesday.
   That might help the bottom lines of those that manage to keep flying, but
it would only speed up a trend of narrowing U.S. flight options that has
been under way for months.
   The largest airports may see only a small decline in flight options, but
smaller cities such as Lancaster, Pa., and Ithaca, N.Y., already have lost
all service. Experts say others in the East, Midwest and beyond are likely
to see individual carriers depart or also lose service completely.
   "If you're in a small city you're going to have less opportunities, and
the leisure markets are going to be priced out," said Parsons, chief
executive of the discount travel site Bestfares.com.
   U.S. Rep. Jerry Costello, chairman of the House aviation subcommittee,
said he is concerned about small and rural areas losing service. He said
he strongly supports the "essential air service" program, which provides
federal subsidies to guarantee air routes in rural areas, but is taking a
wait-and-see approach before considering further financial support for
carriers.
   "We are in uncharted waters here (with potential mergers and record-high
fuel prices) and we need to see how everything shakes out," the Illinois
Democrat said in a telephone interview. As air service to rural areas
declines, he said, all options "will have to be on the table."
   UAL Corp.'s United said it plans to cut an additional 900 to 1,100
salaried, contract and management employees by the end of the year, in
addition to 500 previously announced job reductions. The combined
reductions mean the airline is cutting nearly 3 percent of its 55,600
workers worldwide.
   "With fuel at historically high levels, United and our competitors need =
to
redefine ourselves in this marketplace," Glenn Tilton, United's chairman,
president and CEO, said in a message to employees.
   United said it plans to ground its entire fleet of 94 Boeing B737s as we=
ll
as six of the company's 747s — its oldest and least fuel-efficient
planes. It previously said it was going to mothball 30 of the jets. It is
scrapping the coach-only Ted service and reconfiguring those planes to
include first-class seats.
   Besides the larger reduction in domestic capacity, it also is scaling ba=
ck
international capacity by 4 to 5 percent.
   Regardless of the impact on travelers, industry analysts hail the ongoing
cutbacks as necessary.
   "You can't just cut 17 percent of your domestic capacity if you're not in
trouble," said Brian Nelson of Morningstar. "United is definitely taking
the lead here in terms of the magnitude of cuts needed. However, it's
going to also require others to make those steps."
   Grounding the planes quickly could be a challenge for United. That is
because half of the 737s it wants to pull from service are operated under
leases, not owned outright.
   "I think what they'll do is wait until they get toward the end of the
leases before they park them," said Mike Boyd, president of aviation
consultancy The Boyd Group.
   United declined to say which companies it leased the planes from, but the
contracts are likely spread among a number of different companies.
   John McMahon, chief executive of Genesis Lease Ltd., which leases United
three Airbus A320s that are unaffected by the cutbacks, said lease
contracts typically run five years or more. Lessors may be willing to
renegotiate the terms of an existing deal if they can line up other
customers, but contracts typically don't require them to, he said.
   "It's not unlike if you're renting an apartment, and you have a contract
... and you want to get out of it," McMahon said. "It's not that
straightforward."
   ___
   AP Business Writers Dan Caterinicchia in Washington, Adam Schreck in New
York and Harry Weber in Atlanta contributed to this report. ---------------=
-------------------------------------------------------
Copyright 2008 AP

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