Mesa Air Plans a Life After U.S. Airways

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SOURCE: Yahoo
http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/040524/10161930_4.html

Mesa Air Plans a Life After U.S. Airways
Monday May 24, 8:28 pm ET
By Eric Gillin, TheStreet.com Staff Reporter

With US Airways (NasdaqNM:UAIR - News) facing a second bankruptcy filing
or even liquidation, regional partner Mesa Airlines (NasdaqNM:MESA -
News) is looking at ways to reinvent itself as a low-cost carrier if its
partner goes under.

The Street.com has learned that in a conference call last week with
pilots represented by the Air Line Pilots Association, Mesa CEO Jon
Ornstein informally approached the head of Mesa's pilot union, Captain
Andrew Hughes, with a plan to fly 737 jets independently if US Airways
were to cease operations. In short, Mesa is considering a contingency
plan to become a low-cost carrier serving US Airways' hubs.

"We've made that proposal to unions. We need to have a contingency
plan," said Ornstein, confirming the company's plans but declining to
give details. "Time is of the essence here, and if we're doing anything,
we have to move quickly and be ready to move quickly."

Indeed, the company's contract to fly regional routes for US Airways
accounts for upwards of 45% of Mesa's revenue, according to UBS
research. Mesa also flies for United Airlines, a unit of UAL (OTC
BB:UALAQ.OB - News), and for America West Airlines (NYSE:AWA - News).
But with one of Mesa's best customers warning that it will need
additional wage cuts or be forced back into bankruptcy, Ornstein
stressed that his company is trying to be ahead of the curve.

"The reason why we're doing this -- it's not because of pending problems
with US Airways -- there's just a long lead time to do things," said
Ornstein. "You can't just turn on a switch and have airplanes on line to
fly and reservation systems in place."

And if US Airways does go under and stop flying, an event that UBS
Warburg analyst Robert Ashcroft deemed unlikely in a research note on
May 10, it would create a vacuum in three of its hub markets:
Philadelphia, where Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV - News) has already
moved in; Pittsburgh, and Charlotte, N.C. Under this scenario, the old
US Airways route structure would be "balkanized," with a number of
competitors all moving at once to take advantage.

According to a source close to the company, Mesa is currently weighing a
number of options for that scenario.

One option would be to find another partner to replace US Airways.
Already, rumors are swirling about Mesa pairing up with Richard
Branson's Virgin Airways, which is laying plans to launch a low-cost
carrier in the U.S., with a hub in either San Francisco or New York.
Although Ornstein denies having conversations with the still-unannounced
Virgin outfit, he was the chairman, president and CEO of Virgin Express
in Europe prior to joining Mesa.

"Ornstein has probably talked to Branson about doing some business,"
said Helane Becker, airline analyst at The Benchmark Co., a New
York-based brokerage. "I wouldn't be surprised. He's an entrepreneur
more than an airline person, and he will do what he has to do for his
airline to be profitable."

If Mesa cannot find a new partner, then the carrier may transform part
of its regional business into an independent low-cost operation serving
the old hubs that US Airways served, essentially creating a low-cost US
Airways. The move bears a passing resemblance to the one that Atlantic
Coast Airlines (NasdaqNM:ACAI - News) is now pursuing from Dulles
Airport in Washington, D.C., after, coincidentally enough, Mesa's
unsolicited bid to buy ACA failed.

Other options include leasing the regional jets it would have used to
fly for US Airways or making an investment in a smaller airline, which
it would then use to fly the 737s that are preferred by low-cost carriers.

While the details about Mesa's plans are new, the fact that the carrier
is laying plans is not. On its quarterly conference call, Mesa
executives said they were considering "contingency plans for several
alternative scenarios" if US Airways were to file for Chapter 11
bankruptcy protection again.

"What they're doing is basically trying to figure out if these plans
make sense," Becker said. "They feed US Airways flights in Pittsburgh
and are concerned how they'll survive if it liquidates. The question is,
how do you protect your interests?"

But Ornstein may be doing more than just protecting his interests. With
$228.7 million in cash on hand, the profitable carrier has been kicking
the tires on a number of possible ventures since its bid for ACA was
spurned earlier this year.

In early May, sources told the Honolulu Star-Bulletin that the company
was one of 13 partners hoping to be a part of Hawaiian Airlines'
bankruptcy reorganization plan. And after US Airways announced in late
April that Pittsburgh would no longer be a hub, downgrading it to a
"focus city," Ornstein told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette his company was
considering stepping in to boost service there.

Mesa's behind-the-scenes concerns over a worst-case scenario unfolding
at US Airways are driving the contingency planning, but with the
industry entering its fourth year of losses, perhaps the carrier is
weighing a new endeavor as well.

"First off, if you look at the deals we've done, we're careful. We were
looking to do something that makes sense for the company," Ornstein
said. "But we're opportunistic, because everyone hates the airline
industry now, and this is the time when you can make money."

Calls to the Air Line Pilots Association were not returned by the time
this story was published.

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