NYTimes.com Article: Where Do You Park a 747 on Steroids?

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Where Do You Park a 747 on Steroids?

May 4, 2004
 By JOE SHARKEY





DOHA, Qatar, May 3 - Airbus, the big European airplane
manufacturer, has a beautiful video with a splendid Dolby
soundtrack to show off its new A380 superjumbo
double-decker aircraft, which is due to start flying in
2006. In this sales video, well-dressed passengers stride
up carpeted staircases and chat breezily in on-board
cocktail lounges. Elsewhere on the vast plane, earnest
business travelers pore over spreadsheets with colleagues
while seated on lounge chairs and divans in what appear to
be cozy conference rooms. In all, the chic in-flight
gathering resembles one of those swell old nights at Hugh
Hefner's house.

But when the lights came up in the arena-like Majlis
conference hall at the Doha Sheraton, a reality check
occurred. "Is that a fair representation of what it's going
to be like on that plane?" one delegate at the annual World
Travel and Tourism Summit asked Adam Brown, vice president
for market forecasts at Airbus.

Seated beside Mr. Brown, Mary Gostelow, the president of
Gostelow Travel, a luxury travel company, followed up with
the question Airbus doesn't especially like to discuss.

"Now supposing," Ms. Gostelow inquired in a British accent
of the sort that is often described as plummy, "if we don't
think of the interests of passengers, and if you think of
the interest of the chairmen whose companies will purchase
these planes, how many passengers could you actually pack
in, supposing you took all that gracious space and made it
all economy?"

For years, as the A380 went into development, Airbus and
its choristers in the news media have been relentlessly
describing it as a 550-seat airplane that will offer tons
of extra space for what Mr. Brown described as
"walking-around areas." Last year, at the Airbus production
line in Toulouse, France, an engineer told me that the
plane, which has 50 percent more floor space than a Boeing
747, could hold - and would most likely be configured to do
so by many airlines - well over 700 seats.

The number of actual passengers carried will depend on the
goals of each airline that buys the plane, he said. Some
will opt for an allotment of space for luxuries as intense
competition for premium cabin seats intensifies on long
routes. For many other long-haul carriers, though, the
pressure to pack in as many seats as possible will be
compelling.

The actual maximum A380 capacity, Mr. Brown conceded, is
(drum-roll here) 880 passengers.

That was a higher figure than most of us had previously
heard. "With the Airbus A380, you're talking about 12
doors, 800-plus passengers," a man in the audience
remarked. "What's being done in airport infrastructure to
make sure that this aircraft actually has some possibility
of landing, and it's not going to take people three days to
get off the aircraft?"

Mr. Brown described the many acknowledged virtues of the
plane, and said that typically an airport will need to
spend $100 million to accommodate the A380's with modified
taxiways, gates, baggage-handling and customs and
immigration facilities. How many airports are currently
ready to handle the A380? "There are 13 airports that could
accommodate the A380 today," he said.

I don't mean to single out Airbus for criticism, especially
since the A380 is a highly regarded engineering marvel with
significant fuel efficiencies for its size. As air travel
grows at a projected 5 percent annually, the A380 - Airbus
has already booked well over 100 orders for it - is poised
to provide brutal competition for Boeing's vintage
workhorse 747's.

Many travel and tourism conferences are largely social
gatherings built around patty-cake panel discussions. As I
meant the Airbus anecdote to illustrate, this one - which
was attended by more than 1,000 representatives of the
travel and tourism industry, as well as government leaders
- was different. Over two days, it was filled with often
spirited discussions about the future of travel and its
myriad associated issues, including investment, regional
growth, hotel brand expansion, open-skies disputes, visa
waivers, terrorism, crisis responses to diseases,
globalization, new markets, airplanes and airports and the
news media's influence on travel perceptions.

Future columns will examine some of those issues more
closely.

But let's wrap this one up with a tiny quiz. A week ago,
I'd have failed both questions, giving low-ball estimates.

How much is spent each year on personal travel and
tourism? An estimated $2.5 trillion this year, according to
data compiled by Oxford Economic Forecasting. How much is
spent on business travel around the world? A projected $595
billion this year.

As they peered ahead through the currently mostly sunny
skies, travel experts generally described the threat of
additional terrorist attacks on aviation as a long-term and
perhaps permanent factor in air travel. Nevertheless, a
remarkable worldwide recovery in air traffic is under way,
with the expectation that overall 2004 passenger numbers
will exceed pre-2001 levels.

Passenger traffic on all world airlines rose 13.3 percent
in March, and 9.6 percent for the first quarter, said
Giovanni Bisignani, the director general of the
International Air Transport Association. Even with the war
in Iraq, business and leisure travel in the Middle East is
surging. For the 2004 first quarter, traffic on Middle East
carriers was up 30.7 percent.

The biggest growth markets besides the Middle East? China
and India, where growing middle classes are doing exactly
what might be expected. They're taking more leisure and
business trips.

Along with the Middle East, "the emergence of China and
India will change the face of tourism," Mr. Bisignani said.
More on that later.

On the Road appears each Tuesday. E-mail:
Jsharkey@xxxxxxxxxxxx

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/04/business/04bizroad.html?ex=1084677930&ei=1&en=250def7ca6649fa8


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