NYTimes.com Article: Memo Pad: Air Traffic Estimate for Decade’s End

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Memo Pad: Air Traffic Estimate for Decade’s End

January 20, 2004
 JOE SHARKEY





In 2000, as air travel was surging, the Federal Aviation
Administration estimated that 931 million passengers would
board commercial airplanes in the United States in 2010,
compared with 624 million in 1999.

By mid-2001, when business travel slowed in a souring
economy, aviation analysts said those projections already
seemed exaggerated. And after Sept. 11, passenger growth
projections were anyone's guess.

Now the Boyd Group, the Colorado-based aviation consulting
company, has published a new forecast that predicts the
number of passengers boarding planes in the United States
will total just over 740 million in 2009, far from the 2000
F.A.A. estimate, which had helped prompt many airports to
undertake expensive expansion projects.

The Boyd outlook also estimates that barring catastrophic
events like a major terrorist attack or a sharp rise in oil
prices, passenger traffic will grow from 2.2 percent to 2.7
percent this year.

Northwest Data Issue Stirring Some Concern

Corporate
travel managers are not happy with Northwest Airlines for
secretly providing personal passenger information to the
government for a security study, according to an overnight
survey conducted Sunday and yesterday by the Business
Travel Coalition. Nor are they happy about the way the
airline explained its actions when questions about it arose
last week.

Travel and purchasing managers from 45 big corporations
participated in the survey. Nearly half said they were
"extremely concerned" about Northwest's handling of the
matter. Another 20 percent described themselves as "very
concerned" or "concerned."

Northwest said Sunday that its chief executive, Richard
Anderson, and a spokesman, Kurt Ebenhoch, were misinformed
when they denied in September that the airline had provided
passenger records to the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration for a security study. Northwest said Sunday
that neither Mr. Anderson nor Mr. Ebenhoch had been aware
when they denied it that the airline's security department
had shared millions of passenger records.

Much of the criticism from corporate travel managers
centered on Northwest's response to the controversy,
according to the Business Travel Coalition.

Delta to Begin Using Zone Boarding System

Delta Air Lines
will begin boarding passengers by staggered zones tomorrow
in domestic airports. In the coach section, passengers will
get boarding passes with a zone number corresponding to one
of six sections of the cabin. Coach cabin boarding will be
called by zone, in contrast to the previous procedure of
boarding the plane "from the rear of the aircraft forward,"
said Rob Maruster, Delta's director for airport customer
service.

First-class passengers will continue to be the first to
board. But there is a change for coach passengers with
Medallion elite status in Delta's frequent-flier program,
who used to be boarded in one group, right after first
class. Now they will be boarded by two zones, depending on
whether they are seated toward the front or the rear of the
plane, Mr. Maruster said.

The new boarding procedure - which was tested on Delta's
low-fare subsidiary Song and is already used by several
other airlines - is part of a drive by Delta to reduce
on-ground turnaround time for aircraft and get them "flying
more," Mr. Maruster said.

Over all, "boarding is going to be a lot more efficient,
and it's going to be a lot less hassle," he said.

The new procedure "saves us between 7 to 10 minutes" in
boarding a fully booked airplane, he said.

International Meetings Expected to Increase

The growing
demand for international travel is being reflected in the
meetings and conventions industry. United States meetings
planners expect an 11 percent rise in the number of
international meetings this year over last year, according
to Future Watch 2004, a report by Meeting Professionals
International and American Express that will be issued this
week.

In a survey for the annual report, corporate and
professional meetings planners projected an average 3
percent increase in spending this year over last year, when
spending decreased 1 percent over 2002.

Another Chance to Pass Through Metal Detectors

Now you
get a second chance to fish out those overlooked coins in
your pocket when you go through airport checkpoint metal
detectors. Under a new policy by the Transportation
Security Administration, passengers who set off metal
detectors are invited to try one more time, after
depositing metal objects in a tray.

Previously, setting off the metal detector meant an
automatic secondary screening.

Only 3 U.S. Airports Show Rise in Capacity

Only 3 of the
31 largest domestic airports had increases in scheduled air
service capacity as of last month over December 2002,
according to a report by the Office of Inspector General in
the Transportation Department.

The three with increases in available seats were Fort
Lauderdale-Hollywood International (up 16 percent); Kennedy
International in New York (up 7 percent); and McCarran
International in Las Vegas (up 1 percent).

At the bottom of the list, three airports showed decreases
of more than 25 percent in available seats: San Francisco
International (down 28 percent); Pittsburgh International
(down 34 percent); and Lambert-St. Louis International
(down 59 percent).

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/20/business/20memo.html?ex=1075608663&ei=1&en=e13279e6153fcc09


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