A nod toward the future...The airline industry is slumping but the airport= =20 is building By Bob Driehaus Post staff reporter United Airlines and U.S. Airways have retreated into bankruptcy recently=20 while other major airlines, including Delta, are suffering steep=20 losses. Images of empty terminals and runways during the flight moratorium= =20 in the days following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist hijackings remain=20 vivid. Yet in the eye of this storm, Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky=20 International Airport is planning for big-time growth, including: =95 Groundbreaking Friday for a third north-south runway costing $237=20 million that has been six years in the making. =95 A $1.7 billion, 30-year master plan to reconfigure and expand the=20 airport, beginning next year with an $8.2 million phase mostly to improve=20 Terminals 1 and 2. =95 Comair anticipates expanding temporarily into Terminal 1 in the next= few=20 years to accommodate peak-hour flights. The change would mean some=20 passengers would have to shuttle from Terminal 3 to Concourse C, then=20 shuttle again to Terminal 1. Eventual plans call for Comair to be housed in= =20 the new Concourse D, which won't be built for years, and for Concourse C to= =20 be razed. Subsequent phases would be triggered into implementation by demand, not a=20 timeline. The plan calls for the eventual razing of Comair's Concourse C=20 and Terminals 1 and 2. All would be replaced by a new Concourse D for=20 Terminal 3, plus extensions to Terminal 3's A and B concourses. Other major= =20 changes include a new underground shuttle system, a new Interstate 275/Ky.= =20 212 flyover ramp interchange, and a reconfigured loop road. Plans for=20 massive investments in tough economic times may leave some people=20 scratching their heads, but airline and airport planners say history,=20 bureaucracy and population growth point to a pressing need to work on=20 expansion. "They literally plan for the next generation, not for the next= =20 few months," said John Kennedy, Delta Air Lines spokesman. "You're looking= =20 at huge distances out in the future numbers." Business and political leaders throughout Greater Cincinnati say the new=20 airport runway is critical to the region's long-term growth, because it=20 will enable the number of flights transporting goods, services and people=20 in and out of the area to increase. According to the airport's Web site,=20 airport construction projects are expected to pump nearly $1 billion into=20 the local economy over the next 12 years. Along with the airport's growth,= =20 the impact from tourism and airport-related spending is projected to reach= =20 $6.5 billion a year by 2011. The number of direct and indirect jobs is=20 expected to grow accordingly, reaching 114,500 by 2011. Planners=20 considered several factors in deciding to press ahead with the master plan= =20 and runway: Past storms weathered: The tragedy of 9/11 may be=20 unprecedented, but it's not the first crisis to send the airline industry=20 into a tailspin. Landrum & Brown, the aviation consultant that led the=20 30-year master plan for the airport, tracked demand over the last 30 years,= =20 including several crises. Events like the air traffic controllers' strike=20 in the early 1980s and the first Gulf War in 1990-91 caused drops in demand= =20 nationally that sent the airline industry into turmoil. All flights were grounded Sept. 11-12, 2001, before resuming on a=20 scaled-down schedule on Sept. 13. Comair operations were shut down for 81=20 days during a pilot strike in spring and summer of the same year, a=20 terrible combination for the airport. But from the Cuban Missile Crisis in= =20 1962 through the first Gulf War, downturns proved to be temporary and=20 overcome by healthy long-term growth. "We go back 30 years. You can never= =20 account for those things, but there's always been some major event --=20 deregulation, the oil crisis, the first Gulf War. There's always been some= =20 major event that dampens demand," said Doug Goldberg, Landrum & Brown vice= =20 president. "We purposely didn't want it to be overly aggressive. We wanted= =20 (the master plan) to be achievable and realistic." Atlanta-based Delta,=20 the No. 3 U.S. carrier, posted a first-quarter net loss of $466 million and= =20 has said it is looking to cut costs by $1.5 billion to $2 billion by 2005. It has reduced its work force by 16,000 employees through layoffs,=20 attrition and voluntary programs since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist=20 attacks. The airline lost $1.3 billion last year despite union employees=20 agreeing to salary cutbacks. But the current crisis hasn't deterred the=20 airline from stating similar long-term optimism. "I guess if you look over= =20 100 years, this will look like a hiccup," said Kennedy, the Delta=20 spokesman. "If you look at the overall graph, the industry keeps=20 growing." Delta has suffered steep financial losses since 9/11 but has=20 fared much better than some of its competitors who have grappled with=20 bankruptcy. Its stock sold for just under $40 per share in early September= =20 2001. After plummeting as low as $6.10 in April of this year, it has=20 rebounded significantly, closing at $14.66 Friday. Kennedy believes air=20 travel demand will continue growing until a better, unforeseen mode of=20 travel is invented. "It's always going to be on an up curve until we have= =20 another quantum leap in the way people move around," he=20 said. Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport has bounced back= =20 from 9/11 better than most. Though the number of passengers still lags=20 behind pre-9/11 numbers, the number of flights has reached an all-time high= =20 on the back of a surge in regional jet flights. The airport was hit with the 81-day Comair pilot strike in spring and=20 summer 2001 before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Comair has nearly rebounded= =20 completely to pre-strike numbers, and others have picked up the slack to=20 get back on track for the long-term growth curve. In February, 2001,=20 before the Comair pilots' strike and 9/11, there were 571 daily departures= =20 from Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky airport, including 188 mainline jets and= =20 383 regional jets. In April of this year, there were 600 daily departures,= =20 including 161 mainline jets and 439 regional jets. =95 Glacial pace of planning: Hartsfield Atlanta International Airport,=20 Delta headquarters, unveiled a 10-year, $5.4 billion master plan in early=20 1999, with plans for a new runway and a host of other changes. Delta operates 78 percent of flights out of the airport. The runway plan=20 has wound its way through the regulatory process, including public=20 hearings, environmental impact studies and other hurdles. Construction will= =20 begin in 2006 or 2007, eight or nine years after plans were unveiled. "We= =20 have a 10-year, $5.4 billion expansion program underway and have been=20 confident that air travel would rebound. Because of that we knew we would=20 need expanded facilities in the future. We felt that the impact of 9/11=20 will be short term, we think," said Lanii Thomas, Hartsfield spokeswoman.=20 "We never slowed down and continue to move full speed ahead." The program,= =20 begun in 1999, includes a new international terminal, a fifth runway and a= =20 consolidated rental car facility Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky airport is=20 no exception, having completed years of noise abatement studies, public=20 meetings, federal grant solicitations and other steps leading up to=20 Friday's runway groundbreaking. Were the airport to wait for the need for another runway to materialize, it= =20 would already be too late to meet the demand, many agree. "If you like to= =20 sit on tarmacs, then don't build that runway," said Tom Parsons, CEO of=20 Bestfares.com, a Dallas-based aviation expert. "It's good that they're=20 planning now instead of later. At least you have the land to do it," in=20 contrast to other cities like St. Louis that have more development adjacent= =20 to their airports and cannot expand. The airport stretches over 6.7 square= =20 miles of Boone County and owns 4.5 additional square miles for future=20 development. That number represents 4.4 percent of the county. After land=20 purchases are completed for the new runway, the total airport-owned land=20 will be 11.9 square miles, or 4.7 percent of the county land. Dale Huber,= =20 Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky's deputy director of aviation, said the=20 airport must prepare for growth. "If you contemplate all the (worst-case)= =20 alternatives, then nothing will ever get built. So you have to make the=20 assumptions that we will grow. You need to be ready when it happens, and we= =20 have always operated with that mindset. And it is happening right now. Our= =20 airport growth is up. We're over our (pre-9/11) levels," he said. =95 Growth projections: By 2030, Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky airlines will= =20 have twice as many passengers using the airport as today. That's the heady= =20 prediction offered by Landrum & Brown as a primary justification for its=20 30-year expansion plan. The airport consultant used research from Woods and Poole of Washington, a= =20 demographics consultant, that forecast Greater Cincinnati's population=20 would grow from the current 2 million to about 2.5 million in 2030 --=20 approximately a 1 percent annual growth rate. Woods and Poole also=20 projected personal income growth as the second major factor in planning for= =20 airport demand, Doug Goldberg said. The firm plugged in its formula to=20 compare real demand with real income and population growth in the last 30=20 years and found it was a sound predictor. Landrum & Brown forecasts the=20 number of flight operations -- both departing flights and connecting=20 flights -- to grow from the current annual 500,000-plus to 855,000 in 2030= =20 -- a 71 percent increase. The number of passengers departing from=20 Cincinnati on Delta, the only current and projected hub airline, are=20 expected to grow from 6 million to 16 million in 2030. Comair and other regional jet carriers are projected to continue growing=20 rapidly through 2013 before cresting and growing at a far slower rate as=20 demand is met. Current enplanements -- passengers getting on planes -- of= =20 about 4 million will rise to more than 6 million by 2013, then gradually=20 rise to more than 7 million in 2030, according to projections. Nick=20 Miller, Comair spokesman, won't venture a guess on Comair's future 10 years= =20 down the road, but he's confident the airline will continue growing for the= =20 foreseeable future under the airport's master plan. "You have to have a vision, and I think that's what they're developing, and= =20 I think they're doing a great job. When you make predictions, that's all=20 well and good, but you have to actually see how the market plays out,"=20 Miller said. "I think from Comair's perspective, the important part is=20 having a plan that accommodates airlines' growth. We want it to still be=20 convenient. We want it to be as easy as possible to get around. We think=20 the plan helps everyone involved accomplish these goals," he said. Delta's= =20 Kennedy said the master plan meets the basic requirements for such things,= =20 including providing for efficient operations, a construction pace that=20 matches passenger demand and a reasonable funding mechanism. "We feel that= =20 the master plan is a good step in that direction. We are looking forward to= =20 working with them," Kennedy said. Goldberg said the current ratio of=20 connecting fliers to local fliers is about 3 to 1. He expects local=20 population growth and growing affluence to change the ratio to about 65=20 percent connecting fliers to 35 percent local. Parsons of Bestfares.com=20 said the key to more local fliers is more competition to break the hold of= =20 Delta and its affiliates on the market. "The only thing that you really need that would make your airport better is= =20 a low-cost carrier," he said. "What people want today is good airfares. In= =20 Cincinnati, you probably still have to pray for those." Last year,=20 Business Travelers Coalition calculated that prices for airfares on flights= =20 out of Cincinnati averaged 57 percent higher than in other markets, and=20 short-haul flights were 78 percent higher. They attributed the higher=20 prices to the lack of competition, especially from discount airlines. Other= =20 major airlines are not likely to challenge Delta's dominance because they=20 have traditionally avoided competing against hubs with more than a few=20 flights to connect to their own hubs. Landrum & Brown projects very little= =20 growth in departures from other airlines. =95 Others airports growing: Airports throughout the country are planning= =20 for growth despite the nationwide slump. Cleveland Hopkins International Airport is building a 9,000-foot runway, a= =20 portion of which is already open. Indianapolis International Airport is=20 undergoing a dramatic renovation, including a new terminal. According to=20 the airport's Web site, the estimated total project is $974 million,=20 including $939 million to fund construction of a new terminal, concourse=20 and parking garage, airfield improvements, utility work and site=20 preparation. Bush Intercontinental Airport near Houston has a $2.8 billion= =20 capital improvement program including a fifth runway, taxiway improvements,= =20 a consolidated rental car facility, a new federal inspection services=20 building, an additional international terminal and a 160-acre new cargo=20 facility, all financed by the airlines and user charges, according to its=20 Web site. Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky began working on its master plan nearly three= =20 years ago but suspended it for about a year while the airport grappled with= =20 the effects of 9/11. Planning resumed in 2002, and a draft was assembled by= =20 May. Approval by the Kenton County Airport board appears likely later this= =20 month. Goldberg said Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky airport has a=20 competitive advantage over other airports because of its status as a hub=20 for both Delta, a mainline airline, and Comair, a regional carrier. "We=20 have a fairly strong market here. We're probably fortunate because Delta is= =20 probably in a better position than some other airlines in Chapter 11=20 (bankruptcy) right now," Goldberg said. *************************************************** The owner of Roger's Trinbago Site/TnTisland.com Roj (Roger James) escape email mailto:ejames@xxxxxxxxx Trinbago site: www.tntisland.com Carib Brass Ctn site www.tntisland.com/caribbeanbrassconnection/ Steel Expressions www.mts.net/~ejames/se/ Mas Site: www.tntisland.com/tntrecords/mas2003/ Site of the Week: http://www.natalielaughlin.com/ TnT Webdirectory: http://search.co.tt *********************************************************