Airline industry slowly begins to bounce back By Dan Reed and Barbara De Lollis, USA TODAY The nation's besieged airlines bottomed out in March and April, and are=20 bouncing back =97 though not very high. Chastened by past predictions of=20 recovery that were way off, few in or around the airline business are ready= =20 to declare a recovery just yet. But results from May that have been=20 announced so far include several modestly positive traffic and revenue=20 surprises. Continental Airlines, the only big airline that gives monthly=20 guidance on revenue performance, said its revenue per seat mile was up 1%=20 to 3% vs. May 2002. That's not much, but compared with April's 1.1%=20 decline, it is a significant jump. American Airlines, the world's largest carrier, said Tuesday=20 "better-than-expected systemwide traffic for May" drove its load factor, or= =20 percentage of filled seats, up 4.1 percentage points from a year ago to=20 73.7%. Passenger traffic was down 4.8% in May. But capacity was down 10.1%.= =20 In a report Tuesday, Deutsche Bank analyst Susan Donofrio said the worst=20 has passed for the airlines. The airline stocks she follows are "on track=20 to either meet or beat (earnings per share) expectations for the June=20 quarter." Delta CEO Leo Mullin, speaking at a conference in Washington on=20 Monday, warned against too much optimism. A true "uplift" isn't likely=20 until mid- or late 2004, he said. Still, anecdotal evidence supports the=20 idea that a modest, fragile recovery has begun. "All the vital signs, which= =20 include advance bookings, load factors and average fares, all seem to be=20 moving in ever-so-slightly the right direction," says Jonathan Ornstein,=20 chief executive of Mesa Airlines, a large regional carrier. Ron DiLeo, chief operating officer of Rosenbluth International's corporate= =20 travel business, says his mega-agency's ticket sales have risen each week=20 since the war ended and are now up 15% to 20% from the low point. "It's=20 more than a blip," he says. "It's directly related to pent-up demand for=20 travel. I don't know of a CEO or COO on the planet that's not driving=20 growth aggressively." An Accenture survey of 1,600 business travelers due= =20 out today says 81% plan to travel as much or more during the rest of the=20 year as they have thus far. About 41% fell into the "will travel more=20 category," up from 35% in the last such survey six months ago. "Business=20 travel is on the increase, and the economy is in fact starting to get a=20 little better," says Julian Sparkes of Accenture. "People are less=20 concerned about geopolitical and SARS-related issues." But it's a modest=20 improvement. "Nobody's opening up the champagne yet," he says. *************************************************** The owner of Roger's Trinbago Site/TnTisland.com Roj (Roger James) escape email mailto:ejames@xxxxxxxxx Trinbago site: www.tntisland.com Carib Brass Ctn site www.tntisland.com/caribbeanbrassconnection/ Steel Expressions www.mts.net/~ejames/se/ Mas Site: www.tntisland.com/tntrecords/mas2003/ Site of the Week: http://www.natalielaughlin.com/ TnT Webdirectory: http://search.co.tt *********************************************************