=20 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- This article was sent to you by someone who found it on SF Gate. The original article can be found on SFGate.com here: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=3D/chronicle/archive/2003/05= /25/TR62090.DTL ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Sunday, May 25, 2003 (SF Chronicle) Airlines hit some foul balls with their summer fares Arthur Frommer A riddle inside an enigma wrapped in a mystery best describes the current state of airfares for both domestic and international flights, especially for summer departures. Will they go up in the weeks ahead from their present low levels? Will they cost the same as last summer, or much more? Will they go down? Should you buy your summer tickets now or later? No one can answer those questions. Although travel is seriously depresse= d, the falloff has caused airlines to cut their capacity so drastically -- eliminating whole flights -- that many travelers are taking off right now on planes filled to the last seat. Appearances are deceiving. If the airlines continue to reduce the number of flights they are operating, they might be in a position to raise their airfares, even if the overall traffic numbers remain depressed in these somewhat tense and edgy times. So what does that mean if you are planning a summer vacation now? Should you buy tickets for now, or later? Here's what I suggest: If you can find an airfare now at an unusually attractive price for a tr= ip this coming summer, grab it. There might be no further sales as we move into the summer, and the rates might never again be so low. On the other hand, if the rate quoted for a summer flight seems high -- or at least nothing special - - then wait. You will have nothing to lose and might be able to obtain a lower- priced ticket shortly prior to your departure. Though the advice might seem wishy-washy, I haven't been able to secure information from the half-dozen air experts I've called recently to suggest anything more specific. Not a single travel professional seems willing to make a prediction. No one knows whether air travel, domestic or international, will sharply revive in these post-Iraq weeks or remain slow. Nor does anyone know if the progressive reduction in airline capacity will enable the airlines to raise their rates from current levels. As we await that news, some of the major airlines are pursuing tactics that seem of dubious worth. A puzzled reader recently wrote me to point out that if he wanted to fly from Philadelphia to Los Angeles on Tuesday for a two-day business trip, the fare would be $2,300. But if he flew out on a Saturday afternoon, it would come down to $318. What's going on? he asks. What's going on is an effort by major airlines to continue milking the business traveler (more politely, to "increase the yield" from them) by limiting low-cost fares to trips with a Saturday-night stay -- something few business people are willing to schedule. Leisure as well as business travelers have an increasing number of strategies available that can defeat the aims of the Saturday-night rule: -- Fly the cut-rate carriers, like Southwest, America West, AirTran, ATA or JetBlue, that don't impose the rule. -- Try a nearby alternate airport (like Oakland or San Jose in Northern California, Long Beach or Orange County in Southern California) whose fares sometimes don't require the Saturday-night stay. -- Try all the major search engines, like Orbitz, Travelocity or SideSte= p, which will often alert you to low-cost fares not requiring the Saturday-night stay. Prices like the $2,300 that reader cited are in large part responsible f= or the current plight of the big airlines. Many businesses are digging in their heels, refusing to pay outlandish fares and forcing their executives to fly cheaply, even if on smaller carriers and at less-convenient times or to nearby places. Result? The only airlines currently making a profit are the budget airlines, while the giant carriers are scrambling to create budget airlines of the= ir own. Whether even this development will bring an industrywide lowering of airfares -- or whether it will simply lead to an elimination of some of the smaller budget airlines, and a consequent increase in rates -- is hard to divine. Stay tuned.=20 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Copyright 2003 SF Chronicle