Amtrak in the sky? Business Traveller, David Grossman, Columnist, USA Today 03/27/2003 - Updated 06:05 PM ET http://www.usatoday.com/travel/columnist/business/grossman/grossman25.htm Imagine an airline that offers frequent flights to every destination it serves. Imagine an airline that uses a single type of aircraft for every flight, regardless of the size of the city or the length of haul. Imagine a scenario where every fare is simple enough to purchase at a kiosk, and walk up fares are as easy to buy as movie tickets. Imagine every flight with no advance seat assignments or first class cabins, and airports with no frequent flier lounges. Are you imagining Southwest Airlines? Now picture every airport across the country with every airline just like Southwest. That day may not be far away. Here's another scenario to consider: Only one airline flies to essentially every destination in the U.S. There would be no competition in the air, and the government would subsidize that national carrier whenever it drifted into financial trouble. Sound like Amtrak in the sky? That's another possibility. For years, the airline industry has been heading toward one of these scenarios as high-cost carriers continue to shrink or go into bankruptcy, while low-cost carriers proliferate. The events during the last 18 months have greatly accelerated the death march of the old order of fraternal airlines. A prolonged war could easily push the airline industry over the edge. A swift victory or handouts from Uncle Sam in the form of a tax abatement, a security cost moratorium or the opening of the strategic petroleum reserve could help temporarily. But in reality, this is a forest fire ready to blaze out of control. The wretched economy doesn't look like it will improve anytime soon. And I hate to admit it, but terrorism fears are becoming as much a part of our every day life as the weather report. Some have given up travel altogether due to the hassles of increased security. Unless there's some sort of divine intervention, here are the three possible outcomes for the U.S. airline industry: Emulate Southwest: Delta's Song and United's low cost subsidiary are a step in the right direction. They are trying to cut costs, simplify fares, and in Song's case, focus more on the customer. Everyone is trying to get into the act here. Even Midwest Airlines, a longstanding favorite of frequent fliers, announced that they are terminating meal service on their flights. Everyone is trying to slash costs and emulate Southwest. But it will require a lot more than starting a low cost airline-within-an-airline for most full service carriers to morph into Southwest clones. Labor costs have to be severely slashed. Fleets should be simplified from a half dozen to only one or two types of planes. Hubs must be abandoned and routes trimmed and optimized. It's a tremendous restructuring effort. Through bankruptcy court or not, the major airlines have to emerge from this economic mess looking like the very successful low-cost examples of Southwest, JetBlue and AirTran. But don't count on it. These massive reforms may be far too much of a bitter pill for any management or labor group to swallow. Hatch More Southwests: If the Big Six airlines cannot reinvent themselves, they will soon become a faded memory like Pan Am, Eastern, Braniff, TWA and others. Then the door will be wide open for many new Southwest look-alikes to come into existence. Just like the scenario described above, this will be a classless society of single cabin, no frills travel. But instead of the familiar brand names of Delta's Song and the yet-to-be-named reincarnations of the defunct Shuttle by United, US Airways MetroJet and Continental Lite, we will live in a world of Southwest2, Southwest3 and so forth. And it's already beginning. The worst for the U.S. airline industry is probably still a few months away, but savvy entrepreneurs such as Richard Branson are salivating over the prospect of getting a foot in the door with a low-cost domestic airline. Amair/Amsky: It happened in the railroad industry. Could it happen to the airlines? A prolonged war, new acts of terror or flare-ups in other parts of the world could exacerbate an already untenable situation. This is the doomsday scenario where the economy continues to deteriorate, the price of jet fuel goes through the roof and the public becomes so skittish about flying that even the Southwests and JetBlues of the airline industry can no longer deliver an affordable product. One airline after another could fold overnight into a single, national utility, like Amtrak. The thought of it makes me shudder. It doesn't seem so bad if you live in the Northeast corridor today. You might actually view Amtrak as the civilized alternative to the airline shuttles between New York, D.C., and Boston. But what about using Amtrak to go almost anywhere else in the country? Quite frankly, traveling most places by Amtrak is impractical for business or altogether non-existent. Most every other country in the world has a national airline that is unprofitable and propped up by the government. Could this be the ultimate fate of our own airline industry? We can't answer this question just yet, but as the drama of economics and politics plays out, one of these three scenarios is bound to become a reality. Which one do you think will be best for the consumer? In the case of "Amair" or "Amsky", as it might be called, at least I only have to worry about earning miles on one airline ? if they still give away miles for flying in the Monopoly Miles Program. The best slide auction on the net: http://www.auctiontransportation.com/sites/psa188/ Attend the Newark Airport Airline Collectible Show & Sale: http://www.freeyellow.com/members/psa188/page1.html