Agency says Iraq war could cost airlines another $10 billion

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Agency says Iraq war could cost airlines another $10 billion

CHICAGO, (Reuters) =97 The war in Iraq could easily add $10 billion to world=
=20
airline losses and deepen what is already the worst crisis in the history=20
of commercial aviation, the International Air Transport Association said=20
Saturday. In the gloomiest forecast yet of the impact of the war on the=20
industry, the association said it expects international passenger travel to=
=20
drop 15 to 20% during the war, depending on the region of the world. The=20
IATA's forecast was the latest evidence of how devastating the outbreak of=
=20
war in Iraq is for a key part of the global economy. Airlines have already=
=20
reported accumulated losses of $30 billion since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks=
=20
in the United States reduced air travel. During the war, many companies=20
have ordered employees to only take essential business trips while tourists=
=20
worldwide are canceling or postponing air travel altogether. International=
=20
bookings have plunged, particularly in the United States, where many people=
=20
are choosing to stay home.  Airlines all over the world have been=20
curtailing schedules, especially international routes to and from the=20
Middle East, and many have had to cut jobs to stay in business.

BANKRUPTCIES WEIGH

Three U.S. airlines are already in bankruptcy protection =97 United=
 Airlines,=20
US Airways and Hawaiian Airlines =97 while the world's largest airline,=20
American, is also teetering on the brink. "The people who've always relied=
=20
on American to get them to that business meeting in New York or that family=
=20
reunion in Los Angeles are instead buying no-frills tickets on the Internet=
=20
or worse still =97 deciding to stay home," American Chief Executive Officer=
=20
Donald Carty told employees in Chicago on Friday. "On top of all this, our=
=20
nation has taken action against Iraq." As the U.S.-led war on Iraq began=20
this week, four of the top six U.S. airlines =97 American, United,=20
Continental and Northwest =97 announced cuts in schedules. A host of major=
=20
airlines in Europe and Asia also have curtailed international schedules.=20
United, Northwest, Continental and Air Canada have gone even further,=20
imposing job cuts or temporary furloughs of employees. While the job losses=
=20
by Air Canada and Continental were not just the result of the Iraq war,=20
both United and Northwest cited the war as a major factor in their=20
respective cuts. Of the top six U.S. carriers, only Delta and Southwest=20
have not made cuts since the start of the war. Spokesmen for each airline=20
declined to comment Saturday on whether any job- or flight-schedule cuts=20
are planned. Southwest, a low-fare carrier considered one of the most=20
efficient in the industry, was also the only major U.S. carrier not to make=
=20
cuts after Sept. 11, 2001.

MERGERS THE ANSWER?

Governments must help airlines tap financial markets for cash and allow=20
them to merge to survive the crisis, IATA Director General Giovanni=20
Bisingnani said on Saturday. "We need the economies of scale that mergers=20
and acquisitions can provide," he said. Many countries, especially in=20
Europe, have national ownership restrictions on airlines. Bisingnani said=20
those restraints must go. After Sept. 11, the U.S. government established=20
an emergency loan program for airlines, but has been stringent about=20
approving the credit guarantees. Late last year, it rejected an application=
=20
from No. 2 U.S. carrier United Airlines and the airline filed for=20
bankruptcy protection days later. Now U.S. carriers and some members of=20
Congress are calling for the government to step in again to help struggling=
=20
airlines cope with the decline in business from the Iraq war. Rep. James=20
Oberstar of Minnesota, said on Friday the airline job cuts announced this=20
week "clearly demonstrates the need" for Congress to approve an assistance=
=20
package for airlines. "We must not force the airlines to bear a=20
disproportionate share of the direct and indirect costs of a war with=20
Iraq," Oberstar said. He has proposed an airline aid bill in the House .=20
Meanwhile, IATA said it has set up a task force to help its 270 member=20
airlines plan and operate their routes during war.

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