FAA forecasts modest growth through 2014 Dateline: Tuesday March 18, 2003 US air traffic is not expected to return to pre-9/11 levels until 2006, according to FAA's annual aviation forecast. Even so, FAA forecasters remain optimistic, saying that US Major carriers can expect "positive growth in 2003," with international markets growing faster than domestic markets over the next 12 years. Director-Aviation Policy and Plans John Rodgers said he is hopeful for "modest recovery in 2003" followed by stronger performances in 2004 and 2005. Domestic capacity for US carriers is forecast to decline some 1% this year, mainly owing to extensive route restructuring primarily by United Airlines and US Airways. Domestic capacity is projected to increase 3.3% in 2004, 3.5% in 2005 and 3% in 2006, when the industry climbs back to pre-9/11 levels. Much of the growth will occur in Latin America and the Asia/Pacific region with annual increases of 5.1% and 4.7% respectively, FAA said. The forecast said Regional airlines will continue to grow at a faster rate than Majors through transfer of mainline routes as well as expansion into new markets. Previously, FAA predicted that a billion passengers would be flying yearly by 2014, but officials now are expecting between 850,000 and 900,000 passengers by then. A key to recovery centers on the ability of airlines to reduce their costs to become more competitive with low-cost carriers. Rodgers said, "We've got a good product and there is a way to market that product for traffic." Additionally, he said risks to the accuracy of the forecast include international tensions, the continued decline in the number of business travelers and the ability of airlines to continue to cut operating costs. In spite of the industry downturn over the past two years, Rodgers said many hub airports still are experiencing congestion during peak hours. But the overall slowdown affords an opportunity to plan for increased demand that is expected to return over the next several years. "In a dozen years we expect a significant increase in airline activity and we have to prepare for it," he said. When asked if the possibility of war with Iraq was factored into the forecast projections, Rodgers said, "It hasn't happened yet." But he conceded, "The numbers would go down a bit in the short term if there is a war."--Sandra Arnoult Roger EWROPS