At 10:02 PM 3/17/2003 -0500, Jim Hann wrote: >What I see will happen is a turnover. The "major" carriers will become >like PA and TW of yesteryear, long haul/Int'l; today's "jet regionals" >will be the domestics, running semi point to point ops with small hubs at >certain airports; the "non-jet regionals" will be feeding the old "jet >regionals"; and a new group will pop up to fill in as the "non-jets" move >into larger equipment and markets. In 20 years, we will do it again, as >each company becomes, in turn, too large and unwieldy to stay out of >bankruptcy and stay solvent. So, are Southwest, Airtran, and JetBlue "jet regionals"? :-) As purely intra-USA carriers with low cost structures, they might be leaders in the wave filling in behind the current international carriers. If AA, UA, DL, NW, CO, and US all follow the path of EA, TW and PA(I) to their ultimate destinations, would any of the current middle-tier step up to international service, especially with wide-body airliners? I don't think so; these carriers are following the "do one thing, and do it well," model, and that model doesn't include international service. I find it hard to assure myself that even one of AA, UA, DL, NW, CO, and US will survive the next five years. As much as I like a couple of them and wish them well, I'm growing more fatalistic about their fates. I suppose that after such a shake-out, there will have to be an American equivalent of Laker or Icelandair, a low-cost trans-oceanic carrier. I'm just having trouble imagining the business cases and plans that will lead to such an American beast. Things are going to get weird if the only way I can fly to a foreign country is on an airline from that country. But the more I think about, the more I see it happening. Sigh.... Nick