Airlines worry about potential financial pressures

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Airlines worry about potential financial pressures  =

 =


Wednesday September 18, 3:13 PM EDT =


By John Crawley

WASHINGTON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Worried about possible war with Iraq and =
other U.S. policy developments, big airlines are wrestling with the prosp=
ect of new cost pressures they say could devastate an industry already in=
 serious trouble.

Airline chief executives have met with congressional leaders in recent da=
ys to stress that most big carriers are again headed for titanic losses a=
nd that developments in Washington could determine their fate.

Each of three potential scenarios that could materialize in the coming we=
eks or months would not individually bury the industry, airline executive=
s have told Congress and the Bush administration.

But the prospect of sharply higher fuel prices as a potential consequence=
 of an Iraqi conflict, new taxes or fees for airport security, and no act=
ion on their appeal for help in maintaining "war-risk" insurance could co=
nverge as a "perfect storm" that could be disastrous for the industry, th=
ey said.

  =


"In light of the industry's perilous financial condition, Congress and th=
e administration must act now to prevent the crippling of our aviation sy=
stem, or even worse, industry collapse," said Michael Wascom, a spokesman=
 for the industry's top lobbying group, the Air Transport Association.

The last round of lobbying with Republican and Democratic leaders was the=
 biggest deployment of industry muscle since the group pressed lawmakers =
for a federal bailout after the Sept. 11, 2001, hijack attacks. Congress =
eventually approved $5 billion in cash aid and a $10 billion loan guarant=
ee program.

INDUSTRY IN PERIL

In one meeting last Thursday attended by 10 airline chief executives, Ame=
rican Airlines (AMR) Chief Executive Donald Carty told Sen. Harry Reid of=
 Nevada, the assistant Democratic leader, that new fees, no insurance hel=
p, and a conflict with Iraq could cause almost a dozen airlines to go bro=
ke.

The case was also made in meetings with Senate Minority leader Trent Lott=
 of Mississippi and House Minority leader Richard Gephardt of Missouri.

In an interview with Reuters reporters and editors before their meeting, =
Gephardt suggested that airline executives submit a detailed report to Co=
ngress soon about the state of their finances. He also said one way lawma=
kers could help would be for the government to pick up some of the costs =
that airlines pay for health insurance and pensions.

The major U.S. airlines were $7 billion in the red last year and expect s=
imilar losses in 2002. American alone has lost $2 billion in the past yea=
r. US Airways (UAWGQ) already has filed for bankruptcy and United Airline=
s (UAL) has said it might do so soon.

Airline share prices have also slumped along with industry finances. Deut=
sche Bank Securities analyst Susan Donofrio lowered earnings estimates th=
is week for six major U.S. carriers, citing sluggish revenue.

OIL, FEES, INSURANCE

Iraq produces a fraction of the world's oil but the prospect of war has k=
ept prices hovering around $30 a barrel. Airlines fear that a military co=
nflict will push prices significantly higher, at least temporarily, and m=
ake jet fuel more expensive at a time when carriers are desperate to slas=
h costs. Jet fuel averaged 75 cents a gallon in August.

But traders, also worried about war, already have added up to $4 a barrel=
 to cushion the impact of any price surge.

On fees, some in Congress are fed up with the huge bill -- $6 billion sin=
ce January and more than $5 billion proposed for 2003 -- borne by taxpaye=
rs for airport security upgrades. Lawmakers and the administration are co=
nsidering a new round of taxes and fees on airlines and their passengers =
to spread out the costs.

Airlines pay a range of taxes and fees to use airports above the annual c=
ost of security, which runs about $700 million for the industry. Passenge=
rs also pay a fee of up to $10 per round-trip ticket for security. Airlin=
es argue any price increases will further sap demand.

"I think the government needs to do more," US Airways Chief Executive Dav=
id Siegel said about security expenses after delivering a speech to an in=
dustry trade group this week. "We don't think it's a cost that should be =
borne by the airlines. We're already overtaxed."

According to the Air Transport Association, industry insurance costs have=
 tripled since the hijack attacks. Many underwriters, fearing the prospec=
t of more attacks using commercial airliners, have mainly pulled out or d=
ramatically raised premiums and cut coverage below levels required under =
international law for airlines to operate.

The government has stepped in to guarantee "war-risk" liability coverage =
in excess of $50 million but the airlines want a longer term commitment. =
The current "war-risk" guarantee expires in October and a Senate plan unv=
eiled on Tuesday would extend it for nine months.

"This industry cannot shoulder any additional costs," the ATA's Wascom sa=
id. "We simply don't have the means to do it." =



=A92002 Reuters Limited. =


Roger
EWROPS

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