US Airways Ch.11 Analyst Commentary

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US Airways Chapter 11
Pre-Packaged. Pre-Planned.

Credit Suisse Boston. Bank of America. Texas Pacific Group.

These are what are legally described as "suitable and sophisticated"
investors - entities that know what they are doing. They are not people
who just fell off the turnip truck. Which is why the US Airways "chapter"
filing is another clear indication that the carrier is heading rapidly out
of the woods. The debtor-in-possession and other financing these groups
arranged for this filing are somewhere in the range of $700 million. These
lenders would not make these commitments unless they had 110% confidence
that US Airways is a nearly-sure bet.

We can, of course, expect the usual raft of lightweight stories from some
segments of the media, playing Chicken Little and predicting more
"bankruptcies" in the airline industry. The case with US Airways is a
re-structuring, not a "bankruptcy" in the pure definition of the word as
most people understand it. But there will be the inevitable media articles
here and there inaccurately comparing the US Airways filing to past
history such as Frank Lorenzo's manhandling of Continental and Eastern.
Or, way down on the journalistic food chain, comparisons to Vanguard's
demise of a few weeks ago.

No, this is not a harbinger of things to come in the airline industry.
Remember, US Airways was hurt worse than any major carrier in the 9/11
aftermath. The amateur, knee-jerk reactions of Norman Mineta's DOT zapped
the whole industry, but the extended closure of Reagan National
particularly hurt US Airways, where something like 10% - 15% of its
revenues (or thereabouts) were generated. That sets US Air apart from most
other mega-carriers.

Here's the scorecard. US Air finally has management that wants to run the
company, not merge it. It has a clear plan. It has money. It has strong
financial backers. Its employees are now much more of a team than under
the flash-and-dash Stephan Wolf monarchy. And the airline just signed a
code-share with United that we project will pop somewhere around $200 -
$250 million to US Airway's revenue column. All and all, it's one powerful
situation. This is not an airline without a future - by a long shot.

Yes, a Chapter 11 filing does have victims. There are the shareholders,
although every one of them had to know it was risky paper. And there are
some other creditors - the little ones in particular - who get hurt, too.
That's a reason why filing "chapter" is not something to do lightly. But
at least in this case, one thing is very clear.

US Airways has a plan. And that means it's again a long-term player.

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