ANALYSIS-United Air search for CEO seen as long voyage

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By Kathy Fieweger

CHICAGO, May 1 (Reuters) - The search for yet another chief executive at
United Airlines, rarely an easy task for any large company, is particularly
difficult at the No. 2 U.S. carrier, where labor unions hold substantial
sway, industry observers said on Wednesday.

Jack Creighton, the chief executive of United's parent, UAL Corp. (UAL), on
Tuesday said he would step down after the "weeks and months" of a nationwide
replacement search. The announcement's timing caught some analysts by
surprise, and comes as the airline is trying to bail out from an industry
record $2.1 billion loss in 2001 and $510 million net loss in the 2002 first
quarter.


Shares of Elk Grove Village, Illinois-based UAL were down 35 cents, or about
2.5 percent, at $13.74 in afternoon trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
Most other shares in the airline sector were higher.

Creighton, a board member at UAL and former timber executive, took over as
CEO in October. His predecessor, James Goodwin, was ousted by angry unions
following a public relations disaster that swirled for weeks.

The airline's board of directors has retained Russell Reynolds Associates to
help find a new CEO.

Aviation industry experts said the search could take at least six months,
especially given the de facto veto power held by the pilots and machinists.
Both unions have seats on the 12-member UAL board due to a 1994 employee
stock ownership plan that gave workers 55 percent ownership.

"When Creighton took the interim CEO position six months ago, our
expectation was that his tenure at the top would be a relatively short one,"
said Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Linenberg. "However, we were surprised by
last night's news, given that there is much work to be done on the labor
front."

United is starting to go full throttle on a plan to seek wage concessions
from all labor groups. The request for "shared sacrifices" comes after
industry-leading contracts were granted to various workers represented by
the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, UAL's
biggest union.

The airline says its labor costs are too high, especially given shrinking
revenues. It might apply for federally backed loan guarantees as part of an
as yet undefined financial recovery plan.

"The next CEO at United would do well to follow in Jack Creighton's
footsteps," said Tom Buffenbarger, president of the machinists' union. A
pilots' representative also called Creighton "a breath of fresh air."

RESTORING THE BALLAST

Analysts also saw Creighton's resignation as a signal to labor that it must
cooperate on concessions. The airline's message is: "We need to get
something done so we can get a new captain on board this ship," according to
Linenberg.

United, buffeted even before the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington
slashed travel demand, is listing financially but the ship is not yet sunk,
analysts said.

Analysts noted the airline has plenty of cash and unencumbered assets, too.
Its cash balance grew in the first quarter to nearly $3 billion -- an
increase of $300 million -- and its daily cash burn was halved to $5 million
from $10 million in the fourth quarter.

Speculation on possible CEOs centered around Greg Brenneman, a former
executive at Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL) who heads his own Texas-based
turnaround and equity investment firm, TurnWorks Inc. TurnWorks this year
tried but failed to bring off a merger between Hawaiian Airlines Inc. (HA)
and Aloha Airgroup Inc.

"He's at the top of my list," said one UAL bondholder who asked not to be
identified.

In a 1998 edition of the Harvard Business Review, Brenneman wrote an article
entitled "Right Away and All at Once: How We Saved Continental." He could
not immediately be reached for comment.

THE MURKY DEEP

Labor strife and its potential to whip into typhoon-like fury is no stranger
at United. After handpicking Creighton's predecessor, Goodwin, unions became
irate last fall when Goodwin sent a letter to employees warning of United's
potential demise.

Goodwin himself was chosen as CEO in 1999, after unions refused to back the
expected promotion of John Edwardson. Edwardson was the heir-apparent to
Gerald Greenwald, a former Chrysler executive brought on as part of the 1994
ESOP.

Another former chief at United, Stephen Wolf, was widely castigated by
unions during his tenure. Wolf later left to run US Airways Group Inc.
(U) -- which also has been losing huge amounts of money -- with Rakesh
Gangwal. Both Gangwal and Wolf have also left US Airways.

Richard Aboulafia, senior analyst at Teal Group, said US Airways -- hiring
David Siegel as chief executive in March -- appears to be heading toward a
bit of badly needed calm on the labor front, which United could also use.

Old airline tactics like threatening to downsize, merge or fold aren't
working, he said.

"I would think (UAL) would perhaps want to emulate US Airways and find
someone who is conciliatory, to lessen the alienation and make everyone
realize it is a team effort," Aboulafia said. "Obviously they need someone
who is willing to make it about team work, who can speak to the workers and
makes clear that it is in everyone's interest to have a business model that
works."

Shares of United remain 50 percent below Sept. 11 levels. Shortly after an
American Airlines plane bound for Dominican Republic crashed in November,
the shares hit a low of $9.40.

(--Additional reporting by David Bailey in Chicago)


©2002 Reuters Limited.

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