NYTimes.com Article: Air Travel in Russia Remains Strong

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Air Travel in Russia Remains Strong

December 27, 2001

By SABRINA TAVERNISE




MOSCOW, Dec. 21 - Russian airlines have been relatively
untouched by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United
States that have brought so many Western carriers to their
knees.

Amid a global collapse in air travel, in Russia it actually
rose by 12 percent from September through November of this
year versus the comparable period last year. For all of
2001, Russian airlines will have carried 24 million to 25
million passengers, up from last year's total of 21.8
million.

In a vast land of notoriously bad roads, where traversing
the country by train takes the better part of a week,
Russia's air travelers have little choice but to keep
flying. And considering Russia's spotty safety record, they
are not easily frightened. The remote threat of terrorism
is not enough to discourage flying.

"Russians aren't afraid - they know it all and have seen it
all," said Vladimir Savov, an airline industry analyst at
Brunswick UBS Warburg, a Moscow-based investment bank. "At
first there was a little shock, but on the domestic market,
everything is fine."

Still, the industry has a long way to regain ground lost in
the 1990's, when economic collapse and sharp rises in
ticket prices wiped out the domestic leisure travel
industry. Domestic air travel has shrunk 80 percent since
the fall of the Soviet Union.

At the same time, however, international travel, virtually
nonexistent in Soviet days, has doubled. And when world air
travel collapsed this fall, these flights were affected.
The partly state-owned Aeroflot, Russia's largest airline,
accounts for 68 percent of Russia's international flights,
and has a much smaller share of the domestic market. It
estimates that it lost about 3 percent of passenger volume
this year. That, however, is a small loss compared with the
huge declines in the American airline industry since then.

"For us, the negative effects gathered slowly," said
Alexander Zurabov, Aeroflot's first deputy director,
referring to the terrorist attacks in the United States and
the spate of plane crashes later in the fall. "There was
not a sudden drop like in America."

Aeroflot, which had been dogged by financial scandals and
slow to adjust to market competition, improved markedly
when a new management team took control in 1998. Since
then, it has hired the consulting firm McKinsey & Company
to advise it on how to reorganize, has eliminated
unprofitable routes and has added more flights on
high-demand routes.

That helped increase passenger volumes by about 30 percent,
to about 6 million, and last year turned Aeroflot's chronic
losses into profits. The company's stock price is up 36
percent since August, buoyed by the recent bull market on
Russia's stock exchange.

Even more important for Russia's airline industry is
consolidation among the country's 290 regional airlines,
analysts say. These companies, spun off from Aeroflot in
the early 1990's and nicknamed Babyflots, lack the money to
upgrade Soviet-era fleets. They clog Russia's small
domestic market, and, analysts say, must merge to make the
market more efficient.

"Eighty percent of airlines are financially unstable," said
Igor Medzhibovsky, deputy director of the Ilyushin Finance
Company, a Moscow-based aircraft-leasing company. "They are
not able to afford even leasing new aircraft. The Russian
government wants merging and concentration to be happening
as soon as possible."

Though consolidation has been slow to start, there are some
early signs that it has begun. This summer, Siberian
Airlines agreed to acquire a Moscow-based carrier, Vnukovo.
Siberian Airlines, based in Novosibirsk, an airport hub for
Asian destinations including four major Chinese cities, has
grown quickly. After the merger it would become the
second-largest passenger airline in Russia.

Siberian Airlines has had some tough moments of its own. In
October, one of its passenger planes was shot down by a
stray Ukrainian missile fired from the Black Sea during a
training exercise. All 76 people on board were killed.

At the time, the company said it would sue the Ukrainian
government for more than $10 million in damages. A
spokesman said that the company, mired in paperwork from
various government commissions inspecting the plane crash,
had not yet filed suit. Still, the company said, the crash
did not hurt business.

One obstacle to consolidation is the cozy relationship
between regional airlines and local airports, which grant
them exclusive agreements and prevent out-of-area airlines
from landing planes.

The regional airports "use a lot of cunning ploys" to keep
out national carriers, said Aeroflot's Mr. Zurabov. "For
example, ongoing runway repairs stop only for the half hour
while the local airline lands its plane."

That is beginning to change. Increased competition and
tougher financial discipline is leading to a shakeout in
the industry, and industry experts say the federal
government has been tougher with small, insolvent
companies.

And as Russia's economy, which is entering its fourth year
of growth, continues to expand, the country's airline
industry will benefit.

Even the attitudes among Russia's notoriously surly flight
crews have begun to change.

More and more, employees "want to work in a modern company,
not a glorious one," said Larisa Solodukhina, who runs
staff training programs at Aeroflot.

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/27/business/worldbusiness/27RUSS.html?ex=1010474315&ei=1&en=68c803ad61d729f3



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