I would like to contribute a few thoughts to this list as a
non-techhead, non-guru, humble end user.
Please note that all of the comments below are my opinion only, and are
not intended to reflect any truth or fact.
I spent most of my life in IT departments of large companies and
government departments preparing system design documents and working
with developers and end users to build the user systems to meet the
user's requirements. So I basically had one foot in user space and the
other in development space.
From that perspective, may I say that, to me, it looks like some of the
documentation referred to in this list has been prepared by people with
a strong technical background, but perhaps with less focus on the end
user experience. I feel that there could be some benefit from taking a
broader view of where Linux may be going. Couple of questions.
Do you see the future of Linux as growing in the community and seriously
challenging the current software paradigm of paying to use software?
Do you see Linux desktop becoming more ubiquitous in the community at
large? And even seriously challenging the market dominance of the
current market leaders?
Do you see Linux becoming more ubiquitous in the corporate community,
running corporate networks with Linux desktop on every desk?
If the answer to either/both of the last two is "yes" do you see Fedora
as being the distro of choice for these scenarios? Or coexisting with
some number of other distros living in the same user spaces.
Do you see the development and maintenance of Linux moving from the
realm of the amateur enthusiast and centralised in one of more corporate
like organisations that can manage the development and distribution of
Linux cooperatively?
Do you see Fedora as a leader in the Linux ecosystem? How do you see the
relationship of Fedora to all the other Linuxes?
Do you see Linux "coalescing" into a smaller number of varieties than
are currently available (hundreds on distrowatch)? If so do you envision
that Fedora will be (or should be) the motivating driver behind the move
to a smaller number of "primary" Linuxes; better supported, more robust
and generally better managed?
I hope from the above you can see that my view is to ask what
Linux/Fedora can or should *be*, not what it can *do*. In five years
time what do you want to see when you look at Linux? where is it? What
is it doing? How is it being used? Who is using it? How is it making all
our lives easier and better?
In my view, part of the future for Linux is expansion into the non-geek
world of personal users who want to use their computers to get stuff
done. A certain amount of rationalisation of the Linux space may need to
occur for this to happen, and there may emerge a few market leaders that
support personal users, and become the "go to" distros for new Linux
users. It would make sense, in this scenario, for Fedora to to be one of
the market leaders, as it is one of the oldest and best supported
distros. (the first distro I ever used was Fedora). If this occurred I
think it would leave the rest of the Linux userspace basically
unaffected. Some of the more esoteric distros out there might lose a few
users, but I would expect the effect to be basically unmeasureable. On
the other hand it may be that, once the average PC user has had a taste
of Linux, they may look around for something that suits them better, so
some of the lesser known Linuxes could actually gain users. Roundabouts
and swings.
I also see an opportunity for Linux, and Fedora in particular, to move
more aggressively into the corporate sector. This expansion however
would have to be managed, and would require "corporatisation" to manage
the development, maintenance and marketing of Linux to the corporate and
government sectors. It seems to me the logical organisations to take up
this role would be those offering implementation, management and support
services for large computer networks and installations, on a contract
basis. They already exist (Like RHEL), and many of them already manage
Linux networks. But two things need to happen for this to occur.
1) a greater focus on marketing the Linux desktop to corporates and
government, and
2) a more robust, resilient and reliable Linux desktop.
Unfortunately I believe that currently the Linux desktop is just not
robust enough to be considered for corporate use. I like to tell my
friends that the difference between using Windows and Linux is like the
difference between driving a Toyota Camry and a '66 Mustang. The Camry
will always get you there with no fuss, always work, is reliable,
efficient, and boring as bat-poo. The Mustang on the other hand is
exciting and fun to drive, drinks petrol, can surprise and delight you,
terrify you sometimes, will usually get you there, and is fairly
reliable. But expect to spend a fair bit of time under the hood (or
bonnet, if you are in Australia). I hope you get my point. So the Linux
desktop needs to be the Toyota Camry of desktops (maybe without the
boring part).
So my vision for Linux would include:
Linux supports everybody using computers to achieve their goals,
whenever and wherever they need it.
Linux champions the principal of free and open source software.
Fedora is a market leader in the development, distribution and support
of Linux.
Fedora welcomes all contributions to its continuous improvement and
quality at all levels.
Fedora provides a simple, powerful and reliable user experience.
As a final note, this blog post
https://sourceforge.net/blog/open-source-growing-not/ gives another
perspective of open source software development. It recommends that
developers get paid to contribute to open source software development, a
not unreasonable outcome. In my opinion, it also lends weight to the
concept that the development of open source software needs at least a
degree of centralised management, which could also help in the
management of payment to developers for their contributions. Just a
thought...
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