1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 From: Alessandro TADINI <alessandro.tadini@xxxxxx> Dear colleagues, We would like to invite you to submit an abstract to the session *S2.6 *- *Uncertainty quantification in volcanic phenomena: an essential component for modeling physical processes and for hazard/risk assessment* at the Cities on Volcanoes 11 that will be held in Heraklion, Crete on 23-27 May 2020 *Session Description* Volcanic phenomena are affected by a high degree of uncertainty, both epistemic (i.e. related to incomplete knowledge of the phenomena themselves) and aleatoric (i.e. linked to the physical variability typical of complex natural systems). Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a fundamental task in hazard and risk assessment (e.g. for emergency management and long-term planning) and is essential for making advances in modeling physical processes. UQ has a significant effect on the solution to many different problems in volcanology, both the inverse problems aimed at the reconstruction of past events and the forward problems aimed at the forecasts of future events. These problems include: - The calculation of eruptive parameters, such as the mass of different volcanic phenomena (fallout, PDC, etc.), the mass flow rate at the eruptive vent/fissure, and the maximum or average plume height. The uncertainty in this case defines the probability density function of input parameters to the models of volcanic processes. - The definition of the behavior of the volcano, including the spatial location of eruptive vents, the temporal estimates of eruption onset and duration, and the probability of different eruptive styles and/or hazardous phenomena. - The modeling of volcanic phenomena, especially in those approaches where great simplifications have been introduced to allow the reduction of computational times (e.g. 1-D integral plume models; Gaussian Tephra transport and dispersal models; kinetic, integral, or depth-averaged mass flow models). UQ is, in this case, crucial to define the limits and the advantages of each model, through the comparison with past data UQ can be performed with different approaches, including the application of expert judgment techniques, the comparison of different sampling/integration techniques for measuring field data, the employment of different multi-model procedures and modeling benchmarks for numerical simulations, stochastic processes, event trees, and Bayesian networks. In this session we welcome contributions that cover this wide spectrum of UQ of volcanic phenomena, with a specific focus on those studies focused on modeling of physical processes and/or those which provide a direct application of the results to hazard/risk assessments (e.g. hazard or risk maps obtained through approaches that consider all the above mentioned problems). *Conveners*: Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Pablo Tierz, Sebastien Biass, Gabrielle Tepp, Mary Grace Bato, Samantha Engwell *The deadline for abstract submission is January 25th, 2020 and you could submit your abstract through the following link* https://pcoconvin.eventsair.com/PresentationPortal/Account/Login?ReturnUrl=%2FPresentationPortal%2Fvolcanoes11%2Fsubmit 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 ============================================================== Volcano Listserv is a collaborative venture among Arizona State University (ASU), Portland State University (PSU), the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) of the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History, and the International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI). ASU - http://www.asu.edu/ PSU - http://pdx.edu/ GVP - http://www.volcano.si.edu/ IAVCEI - https://www.iavceivolcano.org/ To unsubscribe from the volcano list, send the message: signoff volcano to: listserv@xxxxxxx, or write to: volcano-request@xxxxxxx. To contribute to the volcano list, send your message to: volcano@xxxxxxx. Please do not send attachments. ============================================================== ------------------------------
