Invitation to participate: Soufrière Hills Volcano quiescence study
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Dear Colleagues
We are carrying
out a survey of scientific and technical staff working in the field of
volcanology around the world.
The purpose of the survey is to investigate the ability of volcanologists to estimate probabilities in conjunction with their knowledge preferences when addressing a problem of providing expert opinion on the likelihood of an eruption ceasing.
The survey is part of a project funded by the Royal
Society and is endorsed by Stephen Sparks. Please see Stephen Sparks' invitation below.
The survey consists of three parts. The first consists of some general demographic questions and also the estimation of the risk of a set of events taking place. This will take approximately 30 minutes to complete. The second part is an exercise in estimating the end of the eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat. The time allowed for this task is 40 minutes. The final estimation task, similar to the first, takes about 20 minutes.
We hope that this project will generate some exciting results for the volcano community, and make a major contribution to the understanding of global volcanic risk. We recognize that this is a substantial time commitment and so if you participate we would invite you to enter into a draw for a $200 USD Amazon gift certificate.
We are asking all volcanologists and technical staff working at volcano observatories or in monitoring institutions to fill out the survey, which is at:
https://mqedu.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_01Jr7ACeCE6PbEx
If you are involved
in volcano monitoring, please consider taking the time to fill it out (roughly
90 minutes). If you have any comments, feedback or questions, please do send an
email to the survey co-ordinator, nicole.weeks@xxxxxxxxx
We are extremely grateful to all those who participate and look forward to
sharing the results! A summary of the findings will be posted on the Volcano
Listserv in due course and will be published in a scholarly journal.
With very best wishes
Prof Herbert Huppert (Cambridge University, UK)
Prof Willy Aspinall (University of Bristol)
(A signed copy of the following email on University of Bristol letterhead is available on request. Please email nicole.weeks@xxxxxxxxx).
Department of Earth SciencesWills Memorial Building Queens Road, Bristol, BS8 1RJ Telephone: (0117) 954 5400 Direct Line: (0117) 954 5419 Fax: (0117) 954 3236 Email: Steve.Sparks@xxxxxxxxxx |
Invitation to participate in an elicitation on the likely duration of the present Soufrière Hills Volcano quiescence.
One issue that has come to the fore in relation to the relative inactivity of the Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) over the last few years has been how to interpret monitoring observations, petrology, eruptive history, etc., in the context of: When can it be decided that the eruption has “ended”? In considering such questions, it is reasonable to ask also: What are the most informative data sources, and how should we assimilate these different sources into long-term ‘forecasts’ of this kind?
I invite you to participate and contribute your views in a web-based elicitation study. The procedure will include a tool to explore the way participants access information for making judgments in an elicitation when addressing questions related to probabilities for scenarios and the state of the volcano when its eruption is ending. This is part of a research effort led by Professors Herbert Huppert (Cambridge University) and Colin Wastell (Macquarie University) and is funded by the Royal Society.
The research aims to examine the relationship between uncertainty judgment capability and the information space used in order to produce such probability estimates. Specifically, interest is in learning whether there is any systematic relationship between probability estimates and individuals’ patterns of ‘information acquisition’. The results of the project will provide guidance for further discussion of the ‘end of eruption’ question, by identifying those aspects of the problem space that are evaluated as more important or central, when considering which information sources to rely on for their judgments.
Details of how the elicitation will be implemented will be circulated by the investigators. I would like to encourage you to participate as fully as you can in this interesting and challenging endeavour.
Professor Stephen Sparks 20 May 2015
Volcano Listserv is a collaborative venture among Arizona State University (ASU), Portland State University (PSU), the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) of the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History, and the International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI).
ASU - http://www.asu.edu/ PSU - http://pdx.edu/ GVP - http://www.volcano.si.edu/ IAVCEI - http://www.iavcei.org/
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