IAVCEI 2013 Session 4-3a: "Probabilistic volcanic eruption hazards and risk"
From: Alexander Garcia <alexander.garcia@xxxxxxxxxx>
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Dear colleagues,
We invite and welcome your contributions to session 4-3a: "Probabilistic
volcanic eruption hazards and risk", to be held at
next year's IAVCEI scientific assembly in Kagoshima, Japan,
20-24 July 2013.
The session description can be found at the bottom of this email. The deadline for abstract submission is 31 January 2013.
(please take a look to the 'important dates' page: http://www.iavcei2013.com/important_dates/important_dates.html )
Note that there are opportunities for financial support available from IAVCEI for (a) young scientists and (b) scientists attending from developing countries. For details see:
http://www.iavcei2013.com/grant_application/grant_application.html
We look forward to seeing you in Kagoshima,
Mark Bebbington, Daisuke Miura, Alexander Garcia, Koji Kiyosugi
- Session 4-3a. Probabilistic volcanic eruption hazards and risk
Conveners:
Mark Bebbington* (m.bebbington@xxxxxxxxxxxx),
Daisuke Miura* (dmiura@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx),
Alexander Garcia (alexander.garcia@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx),
Koji Kiyosugi (kkiyosug@xxxxxxxxxxxx)
Link:
http://www.iavcei2013.com/scientific_program/scientific_program.html#4_3a
Quantitative volcanic risk assessment requires the close cooperation of disciplines dealing with eruption forecasting, volcanic hazards and vulnerability assessments. This session will focus on multidisciplinary studies that can contribute to improving the practice of volcanic risk assessment, mainly in the quantitative modelling of volcanic hazards using data from the history of the volcano. Particular significance is attached to the development of techniques to improve assessments derived from high-dimensional, and hence possibly ambiguous, geophysical data and models. What is volcanic hazard and how can it be quantified? Partly it depends on the vulnerability at issue, be it life, infrastructure, airspace, etc. While this shades into what might be called ‘risk', an undeniably important factor is the kind of volcanism in question, be it lava effusion, pyroclastic flows, ash dispersion... Unlike earthquake hazard which can be handily reduced to a single variable of peak ground acceleration, volcanic hazard is inherently multidimensional. Decision making around volcanic hazard must take into account both the type(s) of impact, and the likelihood of an impact of a given scale including, particularly for airspace management, the duration of the eruption.
We seek papers that quantify, in a probabilistic fashion, the hazards from a volcano and /or their consequences in a quantitative risk framework. The focus is on forecasting the outcome of an eruption, not the onset itself. Papers that incorporate spatial dependence, the influence of temporal evolution of magmatic and geophysical processes, or multiple hazard types, are particularly welcome.
The session description can be found at the bottom of this email. The deadline for abstract submission is 31 January 2013.
(please take a look to the 'important dates' page: http://www.iavcei2013.com/important_dates/important_dates.html )
Note that there are opportunities for financial support available from IAVCEI for (a) young scientists and (b) scientists attending from developing countries. For details see:
http://www.iavcei2013.com/grant_application/grant_application.html
We look forward to seeing you in Kagoshima,
Mark Bebbington, Daisuke Miura, Alexander Garcia, Koji Kiyosugi
- Session 4-3a. Probabilistic volcanic eruption hazards and risk
Conveners:
Mark Bebbington* (m.bebbington@xxxxxxxxxxxx),
Daisuke Miura* (dmiura@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx),
Alexander Garcia (alexander.garcia@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx),
Koji Kiyosugi (kkiyosug@xxxxxxxxxxxx)
Link:
http://www.iavcei2013.com/scientific_program/scientific_program.html#4_3a
Quantitative volcanic risk assessment requires the close cooperation of disciplines dealing with eruption forecasting, volcanic hazards and vulnerability assessments. This session will focus on multidisciplinary studies that can contribute to improving the practice of volcanic risk assessment, mainly in the quantitative modelling of volcanic hazards using data from the history of the volcano. Particular significance is attached to the development of techniques to improve assessments derived from high-dimensional, and hence possibly ambiguous, geophysical data and models. What is volcanic hazard and how can it be quantified? Partly it depends on the vulnerability at issue, be it life, infrastructure, airspace, etc. While this shades into what might be called ‘risk', an undeniably important factor is the kind of volcanism in question, be it lava effusion, pyroclastic flows, ash dispersion... Unlike earthquake hazard which can be handily reduced to a single variable of peak ground acceleration, volcanic hazard is inherently multidimensional. Decision making around volcanic hazard must take into account both the type(s) of impact, and the likelihood of an impact of a given scale including, particularly for airspace management, the duration of the eruption.
We seek papers that quantify, in a probabilistic fashion, the hazards from a volcano and /or their consequences in a quantitative risk framework. The focus is on forecasting the outcome of an eruption, not the onset itself. Papers that incorporate spatial dependence, the influence of temporal evolution of magmatic and geophysical processes, or multiple hazard types, are particularly welcome.
-- Alexander GARCIA Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA) Via Nuova Agnano 11, 80125 - Napoli, Italy -Office: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia via Donato Creti 12, 40128 Bologna, Italy Tel. (+39) 051 4151 465 website: http://www.bo.ingv.it/~garcia
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