OCE Release #6-2007
Brenda Chapin 202-720-5447
bchapin@xxxxxxxxxxxx
CHANGES IN THE MAY 11 SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES REPORT
WASHINGTON, May 4, 2007 - The May 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will reflect changes starting with this issue.
The WASDE report, which will provide USDA's first assessment of supply, demand and prices for the new marketing year, is issued by the World Agricultural Outlook Board of USDA's Office of the Chief Economist. The monthly report, issued at 8:30 a.m. EST, will present projections for 2007/08 U.S. grains, oilseeds, cotton, and sugar, as well as calendar-year 2008 projections for U.S. meat, poultry and dairy products. Individual country forecasts for grains will be shown. World totals will be forecast for 2007/08 grains, oilseeds and cotton. Individual country forecasts for oilseeds and products, and for cotton, will be issued in the June 11 WASDE report.
The May WASDE will incorporate the following changes:
With the accession of Bulgaria and Romania into the European Union, EU-25 is changed to EU-27 throughout the report.
The U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use Table (page 15) will be expanded to include a line for use of soybean oil in the production of biodiesel. This use will be reported as a subcategory of Domestic Use. The category will be referred to as "used for methyl ester" following the convention used by the Census Bureau to report soybean oil used for biodiesel.
The U.S. Domestic Sugar Table (page 16) will add a line for imports from Mexico under "Other" imports. These imports from Mexico will include only high-tier imports and not imports specified under the tariff rate quota.
"Other Europe" is dropped from the World Coarse Grain Supply and Use Table (pages 20-21) and World Corn Supply and Use Table (pages 22-23). "Brazil" is added to the "Selected Other" category in the World Coarse Grain Supply and Use Table (pages 22-23).
The term "consumption" is changed to "disappearance" in the U.S. Meats Supply and Use Table (page 32) and the U.S. Egg Supply & Use Table (page 33). This definitional change reflects the residual nature of disappearance in these supply and use balances. The manner of calculation is unchanged.
Please refer to the following sample tables with changes marked in boldface.
WASDE-446-15
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2007/08 Projections
Item : 2005/06 : 2006/07 :===============================
: : Est. : May
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted :
Harvested :
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre :
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks :
Production :
Imports :
Supply, total :
Crushings :
Exports :
Seed :
Residual :
Use, total :
Ending stocks :
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ :
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks :
Production :
Imports :
Supply, total :
Domestic :
Used for methyl ester 3/ :
Exports :
Use, total :
Ending stocks :
Average price (c/lb) 2/ :
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks :
Production :
Imports :
Supply, total :
Domestic :
Exports :
Use, total :
Ending stocks :
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ :
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil
and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received
by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal,
simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Soybean oil used for methyl ester for production of biodiesel as reported by the Department of Commerce.
WASDE-446-16
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
: : 2006/07 : 2007/08
Item : 2005/06 :====================:============
: Estimate : April May : Projection
======================================================================
: 1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks :
Production 2/ :
Beet sugar :
Cane sugar :
Florida :
Hawaii :
Louisiana :
Texas :
Imports :
TRQ 3/ :
Other program 4/ :
Other 5/ :
Mexico :
Total supply :
:
Exports :
Deliveries :
Food :
Other 6/ :
Miscellaneous 7/ :
Total use :
Ending stocks : :
Stocks to use ratio :
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2007/08 are based on March 31 Prospective Plantings and trend yields. 3/Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ)with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which
they actually arrived. For 2007/08,... 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Does not include Mexico TRQ imports. For 2005/06, high-tier( )and other ( ). For 2006/07, high-tier( )and other( ). For
2007/08, high-tier( )and other( ). 6/Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport,and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Includes SMD miscellaneous uses and the difference between SMD imports and WASDE imports.
WASDE-446-20
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2005/06
:
World 3/ :
United States :
Total foreign :
Major exporters 4/ :
Argentina :
Australia :
Canada :
Major importers 5/ :
EU-27 6/ :
Japan :
Mexico :
N. Afr & Mideast 7/:
Saudi Arabia :
Southeast Asia 8/ :
South Korea :
Selected other :
Brazil :
China :
FSU-12 :
Russia :
Ukraine :
:
: 2006/07 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ :
United States :
Total foreign :
Major exporters 4/ :
Argentina :
Australia :
Canada :
Major importers 5/ :
EU-27 6/ :
Japan :
Mexico :
N. Afr & Mideast 7/:
Saudi Arabia :
Southeast Asia 8/ :
South Korea :
Selected other :
Brazil :
China :
FSU-12 :
Russia :
Ukraine :
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum,
barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and
mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the
differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not
balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South
Africa. 5/ The EU-27, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East,
South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/
Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and
Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
WASDE-446-21
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2007/08 (Projected)
World 3/ :
May :
United States :
May :
Total foreign :
May :
Major exporters 4/ :
May :
Argentina May :
Australia May :
Canada May :
Major importers 5/ :
May :
EU-27 6/ May :
Japan May :
Mexico May :
N Afr/M.East 7/May :
Saudi Arabia May :
S.-east Asia 8/May :
South Korea May :
Selected other :
Brazil May :
China May :
FSU-12 May :
Russia May :
Ukraine May :
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum,
barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and
mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the
differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not
balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South
Africa. 5/ The EU-27, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East,
South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/
Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and
Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
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