PROGRAM ANNOUNCEMENT: USDA TO RELEASE NEW LONG-TERM BASELINE PROJECTIONS

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PROGRAM ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ECONOMIST

OCE-2006-2

Brenda Chapin (202) 720-5447

USDA TO RELEASE NEW LONG-TERM BASELINE PROJECTIONS 

WASHINGTON, Feb. 10, 2006--The United States Department of Agriculture will release new 10-year agricultural baseline projections today at noon, EST.

USDA provides long-term agricultural projections each year for use in preparing federal budget estimates.  "USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2015" will be released today in electronic form on the Office of the Chief Economist Web site, http://www.usda.gov/oce. USDA publishes the projections each year in late February.

The full report will be available in printed form Feb. 16 at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia (For conference details, go to: www.usda.gov/oce/forum).
Or copies can be ordered from the National Technical Information Service at http://www.ntis.gov or 1-800-999-6779.  Request document WAOB-2006-2.

        The baseline projections are developed by interagency committees in USDA, with the Economic Research Service (ERS) having the lead role in the preparation of the report.  The new projections cover agricultural crop and livestock commodities, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators such as farm income and food prices through 2015.  The baseline is not a USDA forecast, but a conditional, long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about farm policy, the weather, the economy and international developments.  Provisions of the 2002 Farm Bill are incorporated into the baseline and are assumed to remain in effect throughout the projection period.  Normal weather is also assumed throughout the projection period.  

        Background on USDA's long-term baseline projections and past issues of the report are available at the ERS Web site, http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/baseline.

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