SIRTFfcst.doc

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Title:

 

Eastern Range Operations Forecast

Op Number:  F8615

Issued:  21 Aug 03  0930 EDT

Valid:   25 Aug 03   0135 EDT

Note:  Forecasts available on the 45th Weather Squadron web site at: https://www.patrick.af.mil/45OG/45WS/

 

 

Vehicle/Payload:

Delta II / SIRTF

 

Location:

Pad 17-B

 

Launch Weather Officer:

Joel Tumbiolo

 

 

Synoptic Discussion:

 

Deep tropical air mass remains entrenched over FL.  Light S-SW steering flow will result in early development and inland penetration of the east coast sea breeze.  This will result in a majority of showers and thunderstorms remaining west of I-95.  Weak frontal boundary approaching from the north will be over FL-GA border over the weekend, and dissipate over northern and central FL by Monday.   A southeasterly flow reestablishes itself on Tuesday as a tropical wave approaches from the SE.  This wave is expected to remain south of the area.  Main concerns for the instantaneous launch window will be the proximity of residual cloud cover associated showers and thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon and evening hours. 

 

Clouds

Coverage

Bases (feet)

Tops (feet)

SCT030

2/8

3,000

  5,000

SCT120

2/8

12,000

14,000

BKN250

5/8

25,000

28,000

 

 

 

 

Visibility:

7 miles

 

 

Wind:

SE / 5 knots, gusting to 10 knots

Pressure:

30.00 IN HG

 

 

Temperature:

76 F - 78 F

RH:

90%

 

 

 

 

Weather:

Showers in the vicinity

 

 

Overall probability of violating weather constraints:

20%

Primary concern(s):

Cumulus Cloud Rule, Anvil Cloud Rule, Debris Cloud Rule

 

 

Overall probability of violating weather constraints for 24 hour delay:

30%

Primary concern(s):

Same

 

 

Overall probability of violating weather constraints for 48 hour delay:

30%

Primary concern(s):

Same

 

 

Sunrise:

25 Aug 03 / 0657 EDT

26 Aug 03 / 0658 EDT

27 Aug 03 / 0658 EDT

Moonrise/

(% illum):

25 Aug 03 / 0436 EDT / 5%

26 Aug 03 / 0539 EDT / 2%

27 Aug 03 / 0643 EDT / 0%

Sunset:

25 Aug 03 / 1952 EDT

26 Aug 03 / 1951 EDT

27 Aug 03 / 1950 EDT

Moonset:

25 Aug 03 / 1853 EDT

26 Aug 03 / 1935 EDT

27 Aug 03 / 2013 EDT

Next forecast will be issued:

22 Aug 03

 

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