Having caught a (presumably non-COVID) version of Corona in Singapore and still feeling the after effects, I am not at all sure this extrapolation is useful. While I am assured that the effects of the last complication will last no more than six months, That only started four weeks ago.
Everyone is looking at the number of people who have died. Which is the major concern of course. And many people who get the disease appear to suffer almost no symptoms. But many people have very serious symptoms even if it is not fatal. And it is going to take a long time for those people to recover. Unless the trajectory of the pandemic changes dramatically soon, we are looking at tens of millions of cases at minimum.
I would not anticipate any return to normality any time soon if at all. Governments that were complacent in their early response will be reactionary in their followup.. It is unlikely that international travel is going to be relaxed this year.. Quite probably that will only be possible after a virus has been developed. And then only for people who can prove they have been vaccinated.
On Wed, Mar 25, 2020 at 10:53 AM Maisonneuve, Julien (Nokia - FR/Paris-Saclay) <julien.maisonneuve@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Researchers claim the immunity should last "a few months" in the absence of new stimulation of the immune system.
Immunity also applies to only some aspects of the virus, mutations can make it less useful.
Julien.
-----Original Message-----
From: ietf <ietf-bounces@xxxxxxxx> On Behalf Of Rich Kulawiec
Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2020 1:49 PM
To: ietf@xxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: IETF in July
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 04:46:55PM -0400, Keith Moore wrote:
> Don't stop at July 2020.?? Plan contingencies through at least EOY 2021.???
> Until there's global herd immunity of one kind or another, continued
> restrictions on travel seem likely.
Note that -- at the moment -- while it seems likely that those who have been infected with COVID-19 and survived it will develop some immunity to it, I'm unaware of any research that indicates *how long* such immunity might persist.
So while long-term global herd immunity is indeed a possibility, it would probably be best to avoid assuming it will exist until there is ample evidence that it does exist.
---rsk
