Re: IETF Attendance by continent

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On Aug 28, 2010, at 1:25 PM, Scott Brim wrote:

> On 08/28/2010 12:28 EDT, Adrian Farrel wrote:
>> And even closer to 3:2:2 ?

I think that people have unreasonable expectations about what we can do here.

There are 3 meetings per year, and 3 meeting regions being considered, and we are generally considering something between 1 and 3 years out at any time. 

Suppose that the time horizon is 2 years. Then, an equal meeting schedule is 

2:2:2 (which is equivalent to 1:1:1, of course).

If we shift one meeting, we have

3:2:1  (the current proposal) - or 1:0.66:0.33

If we shift 2 meetings, we have 

4:1:1  - or 1:0.25:0.25

and that's it. Without having no meetings in some region, 1:1:1, 3:2:1, or 4:1:1 is all we can chose between with a 2 year horizon. 

(You have to chunk the meetings somehow to get these ratios; doing by calendar years is a very reasonable chunk that fits well with the way that meetings are scheduled.)

Suppose that our time horizon is 3 years - then an equal meeting schedule is

3:3:3 and we can shift meetings to produce

4:3:2 - or 1:0.75:0.5
4:4:1 - or 1:1:0.25
5:2:2 - or 1:0.4:0.4
5:3:1 - or 1:0.6:0.2
6:2:1 - or 1:0.33:0.16
7:1:1 - or 1:0.14:0.14

and that's it (without dropping some region entirely). 

So, for example, instead of 3:2:2 (or 1:0.66:0.66) I would recommend 4:3:2 for the next 3 years
(the closest triplet using an absolute value sum metric on the differences). 4:3:2 would be easier to do than 3:2:2 based on the way we schedule and review meeting locations.

Now, of course, meeting locations do get moved, and 4:3:2 might easily turn into 4:4:1 or 3:3:3 based on contingencies. 

I do not think it is reasonable to apply a time horizon of > 3 years to IETF meeting locations. Attendance is changing too rapidly for that.

Regards
Marshall 

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