Well, you are looking to do something awful anyways (call gtk_widget_queue_draw() out of a theme engine), so given that, you could investigate the further awfulness of doing:
GTK_PROGRESS_GET_CLASS(progressbar)->paint (GTK_PROGRESS(progressbar)); gtk_widget_queue_draw (progressbar);
After checking the source code, I noticed that the gtk_progress_changed() function queues a resize using gtk_widget_queue_resize(). Even though the size never changes, it does seem to force a redraw. I did the same in my timer, and it works fine :)
I think you are going to run into the problem that apps frequently put up a progress bar and only run the main loop occasioanlly to update the progress bar when the application changes the value ... that is, you aren't going to get a nice smooth animation.
I've tried a bunch of applications so far, and the animation itself is quite smooth. The code is in Clearlooks CVS right now, in case people want to try it out. I am currently working on fixing RTL support (almost done with that).
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