John Reiser <jreiser@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote: >> New projection when we will be finished is 2025-04-06 (+5 >> days from last report). Pure linear approximation. > Such a linear approximation, based on the entire tracked history, > is the second worst possible estimate. (The worst possible estimate > is the output of a random date generator.) > Financial markets and other arenas using serious statistical forecasting > have known for decades that it is much better to estimate by assuming > a rate equal to the moving average rate over a fixed-length relevant > period. Repeatedly estimating based on the entire history does not > meet the fixed-length requirement, because the entire history grows. > Typical periods range from a small number of months to one year. > For Fedora, one relevant period might be six months, the > interval between scheduled releases. Also useful are 90 and > 120 days. > Graphing the estimated completion date based on such a moving > average rate would be much more informative and useful than the > estimated dates which have been published so far. Maybe I misunderstood the original post, but I did not per- ceive the intent of the data's publication to be informative and useful, but to motivate (converting the licenses). Tim -- _______________________________________________ devel mailing list -- devel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx To unsubscribe send an email to devel-leave@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Fedora Code of Conduct: https://docs.fedoraproject.org/en-US/project/code-of-conduct/ List Guidelines: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Mailing_list_guidelines List Archives: https://lists.fedoraproject.org/archives/list/devel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Do not reply to spam, report it: https://pagure.io/fedora-infrastructure/new_issue
