On Thu, May 2, 2024 at 6:11 PM Matthew Miller <mattdm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote: > Just eyeballing the prediction graph in the Google doc, it looks like the > linear approximation is distorted by the big drop in "non-trivial" last > September. And, the slope for "converted" is pretty steep before that, but > significantly flatter after. I think this is making the prediction a little > too optimistic. > > If we extrapolate linearly just from 2023-09-29 on, that gives an end-date > of 2026-02-22. And linearly is probably optimistic too, given the classic > "last 10% is 90% of the time" thing. Linear approximation is almost always wrong, it is just also hard to predict by how much (we could make a linear prediction on how bad it will be?). If one only looks at the graph for the last six months or so the linear estimate for completion is more towards the end of the century. Joking aside, I do agree the non-trivial conversions are likely to be the hard ones, and there will be a very long tail (many years more) for 100% as the work to deal with some of those hard ones may require expertise that is in limited or even unavailable supply, and when they require new (legal) license reviews and SPDX definitions they can take quite some time. Alternatively, it is possible that there is a target (say, 95%) after which the SPDX conversion project will be stated to be "essentially" complete and is ended even if not 100%. -- _______________________________________________ devel mailing list -- devel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx To unsubscribe send an email to devel-leave@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Fedora Code of Conduct: https://docs.fedoraproject.org/en-US/project/code-of-conduct/ List Guidelines: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Mailing_list_guidelines List Archives: https://lists.fedoraproject.org/archives/list/devel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Do not reply to spam, report it: https://pagure.io/fedora-infrastructure/new_issue
