Re: Fedora 28 Final status is GO

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On Thu, 2018-04-26 at 16:54 -0400, Matthew Miller wrote:
> On Thu, Apr 26, 2018 at 01:02:32PM -0700, Adam Williamson wrote:
> > *was* an 'official' schedule with an earlier release date than the
> > actual one in each case. If anyone's as sadly nerdy as me, I can
> > provide specific references for each of these releases.
> 
> Um, yes please.

FINE.

AdamW Industries hereby presents The Utterly Comprehensive And
Definitive History Of Fedora Release Delays.

All actual release dates mentioned here are taken from
https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/HistoricalSchedules , cross
checked with https://distrowatch.com/table.php?distribution=fedora .

Fedora Core 1: https://www.redhat.com/archives/fedora-devel-list/2003-October/msg01178.html
"We had to respin FC1 today for a non-technical issue...so we have to
slip until after we hear back from them". Thanks to Thomas Moschny
for spotting/remembering that one!

Fedora Core 2: 
https://web.archive.org/web/20040406202016/http://fedora.redhat.com/participate/schedule/
That's the schedule on 2004-04-06 per Wayback Machine, the last
snapshot taken before the actual release. It shows "Release open"
on 2004-05-10. Actual release was 2004-05-18.

Fedora Core 3: https://web.archive.org/web/20041014022956/http://fedora.redhat.com/participate/schedule/
That's the schedule on 2004-10-14 per Wayback Machine. It shows
"Release open" on 2004-11-01. By 2004-10-22 that date had been changed
to 2004-11-08, which was the actual final release date. So there was
a one-week slip less than three weeks before release. (This wasn't the
only slip; back in August, for instance, the date was shown as
2004-10-25: https://web.archive.org/web/20040810000233/http://fedora.redhat.com:80/participate/schedule/ )

Fedora Core 4: https://web.archive.org/web/20050212015551/http://fedora.redhat.com/participate/schedule/
On 2005-02-12, the "Release open" date was 2005-05-16.
https://web.archive.org/web/20050517233132/http://fedora.redhat.com/participate/schedule/
by 2005-05-17, it had changed to 2005-06-06 (which was still the target
at least as late as 2005-05-29). Actual release was 2005-06-13.

Fedora Core 5: https://web.archive.org/web/20051211051141/http://fedora.redhat.com:80/About/schedule/
On 2005-12-11, the "Release open" date was 2006-02-27.
https://web.archive.org/web/20060217043822/http://fedora.redhat.com:80/About/schedule/
By 2006-02-17, it had changed to 2006-03-15. Actual release date
was 2006-03-20.

Fedora Core 6: https://web.archive.org/web/20060601062428/http://fedoraproject.org:80/wiki/Core/Schedule
On 2006-06-01, GA date (this appears to be when we started calling it
'GA', fact fans!) was 2006-09-27.
https://web.archive.org/web/20061010085518/http://fedoraproject.org:80/wiki/Core/Schedule
by 2006-10-10, it had changed to 2006-10-17. We were still wrong just
a week out, though: it actually was released 2006-10-24.

Fedora 7: I found various references for this, but carrying on using
the Wayback Machine on the wiki seems like a good a plan as any. So:
https://web.archive.org/web/20070319211234/http://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/Schedule
On 2007-03-19, GA date was 2007-05-24. It stayed that way till
2007-05-08: https://web.archive.org/web/20070508223935/http://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/Schedule
Then around 2007-05-10 the date was changed to 2007-05-?? (yes, really)
with a note "Final freeze and GA have slipped by at least a week from
their original dates of May 10 and May 24, respectively. When more firm
dates are determined, this will be updated again.":
https://web.archive.org/web/20070510074633/http://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/Schedule
indeed, the release finally happened on 2007-05-31. Note that in the
initial tentative schedule discussed by the Board:
https://lwn.net/Articles/213942/ , release was on 2007-04-24.

Fedora 8: https://web.archive.org/web/20170318225502/https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/8/Schedule
On 2007-06-02, GA was scheduled for 2007-10-31 (LWN posted a story
about this on 2007-05-31: https://lwn.net/Articles/236468/), though
note to be fair, the schedule was explicitly marked as a "draft" at
this point. By 2007-06-30, the "draft" note was removed, and the GA
date was set for 2007-11-07:
https://web.archive.org/web/20070630004529/https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/8/Schedule
This is by far the closest we ever came to an 'on time' release before,
because actual release happened just a day later, on 2007-11-08. So
if we discount the 'draft' schedule, F8 was only delayed by one day.

Fedora 9: https://forums.fedoraforum.org/showthread.php?186443-Fedora-9-Release-Date-Slips-Two-Weeks-to-5-13-08
The forums actually have a thread recording that a two week slip was
officially announced by FESCo around 2008-04-17. This is captured in
the Wayback Machine:
https://web.archive.org/web/20080409211329/https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/9/Schedule
on 2008-04-09, "final release" was listed as 2008-04-29, but by
2008-04-20, that had changed to 2008-05-13:
https://web.archive.org/web/20080420060131/https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/9/Schedule
which was indeed the final release date.

Fedora 10: John Poelstra announced a three-week slip to the schedule
due to infrastructure outages:
http://johnpoelstra.com/fedora-10-schedule-update/
That post is unusefully not dated, but it was at least before
2008-09-09. It cites the new GA date as 2008-11-18, but the actual
release was 2008-11-25, so there was an additional one week slip.
The earliest 'official' schedule (without notes that it had not yet
been ratified by FESCo) I can find is:
https://web.archive.org/web/20080717094755/https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/10/Schedule
which lists GA as 2008-10-28.

>From Fedora 11 onwards, the official schedule page in the wiki records
all official schedule slips via strikethroughs, so I'll just link to
each page and specify the earliest official GA date and the actual.
For the record, no, I don't know why the hell whoever makes this pages
couldn't make up their damn mind about what the URL ought to be for so
long. :P

Fedora 11: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/11/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2009-05-26
Actual:             2009-06-09

Fedora 12: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/12
Earliest scheduled: 2009-11-03
Actual:             2009-11-17

Fedora 13: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/13/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2010-05-11
Actual:             2010-05-25

Fedora 14: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/14/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2010-10-26
Actual:             2010-11-02

Fedora 15: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/15
Earliest scheduled: 2011-05-10
Actual:             2011-05-24
(This was actually a minor miracle, as this was the release we
introduced *both* systemd *and* GNOME 3...)

Fedora 16: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/16/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2011-10-25
Actual:             2011-11-08

Fedora 17: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/17/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2012-05-08
Actual:             2012-05-29

Fedora 18: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/18/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2012-11-06
Actual:             2013-01-15
(If you're wondering why this one was so rough: it was the release
where we introduced the new anaconda UI.)

Fedora 19: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/19/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2013-06-25
Actual:             2013-07-02

Fedora 20: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/20/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2013-11-26
Actual:             2013-12-17

Fedora 21: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/21/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2014-11-18
Actual:             2014-12-09

Fedora 22: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/22/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2015-05-19
Actual:             2015-05-26

Fedora 23: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/23/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2015-10-27
Actual:             2015-11-03

Fedora 24: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/24/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2016-05-17
Actual:             2016-06-21
(I don't recall why this one was so rough...glibc and gcc bumps?)

Fedora 25: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/25/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2016-11-08
Actual:             2016-11-22

Fedora 26: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/26/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2017-06-06
Actual:             2017-07-11
(Again I forget what the deal was here, but it had a GCC bump,
cflags updates, OpenSSL 1.1.0 and DNF 2.0, which could be it.)

Fedora 27: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Releases/27/Schedule
Earliest scheduled: 2017-10-24
Actual:             2017-11-14

So there we go! Fedora 8 is clearly the closest we ever came before to
shipping 'on time', with a slip of only one day from the first non-
draft public schedule. There were a few other releases with slips of
only a week. But F28 is truly the first to be right on time, assuming
we don't run into any issues over the weekend. No pressure,
releng/websites folks :P
-- 
Adam Williamson
Fedora QA Community Monkey
IRC: adamw | Twitter: AdamW_Fedora | XMPP: adamw AT happyassassin . net
http://www.happyassassin.net
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