On Tue, May 4, 2010 at 11:14 AM, Kevin Kofler <kevin.kofler@xxxxxxxxx> wrote: > Stephen John Smoogen wrote: >> Any one of those can invalidate the mathematical tests you say to run >> as they require random pools, controls on populations polled, and >> non-leading questions. People keep telling you this and you seem to >> keep ignoring it. > > I know the poll is far from perfect. But it is the best we have and it is a > better basis for decision than somebody's guess which has no roots in > reality at all. > > And unlike your motorcycle example, there is no provable bias into either > direction. All you can say is that the results MAY be false due to imperfect > methodology, you can't prove they are. I am sorry, but I was confused. You said you would compute p-value tests, but those are only really valuable if you have over a 90% confidence level in the data. Using a non-random sampling polling method which the forum comes in.. I was advised that the best confidence level one could have was 60% with it probably being more like 50%. At this point your +/- % is about 50% also. At this point, what I can say about the survey is that somewhere between 1% to 100% of people want 'adventurous updates'. And between 1% and 100% do not. Yes the number 78% looks really strong but the confidence in it is so low that it could just as easily have been 22% .. and just as been accurate. -- Stephen J Smoogen. “The core skill of innovators is error recovery, not failure avoidance.” Randy Nelson, President of Pixar University. "We have a strategic plan. It's called doing things."" — Herb Kelleher, founder Southwest Airlines -- devel mailing list devel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx https://admin.fedoraproject.org/mailman/listinfo/devel
