=0A =0AThe Cranky Flier =E2=80=A2 by CF =E2=80=A2 1 day ago =E2=80=A2 ke= ep as unread =E2=80=A2 preview =E2=80=A2 copy link =0AWe=E2=80= =99ve got a special guest post today from =0Asomeone who is an aircraft dis= patcher for a major US airline. This =0Aperson wrote in to me after my int= erview with Kate Hanni with an =0Aenlightening piece on lengthy ground dela= ys that I thought would be of =0Ainterest to everyone here. Here is his ta= ke on things . . .=0A=0A________________________________=0A If folks want t= he systemic, =E2=80=9Cbig picture=E2=80=9D view of why the new 3-hour =0Ali= mit is such a BAD idea, they need go no further than an airline=E2=80=99s = =0Acentral dispatch office, or any air traffic control facility, and chat = =0Awith the actual working dispatchers and air traffic controllers, =0Aresp= ectively, who are the front-line troops in the annual weather war. =0ADispa= tch is an airline=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9CMission Control=E2=80=9D center, and I= =E2=80=99ve worked in one as a dispatcher for upwards of 30 years. A fligh= t crew might =0Aoperate 3-5 flights per day, but the average dispatcher wor= ks ten times =0Athat many flights in a single shift, and has a more-detaile= d awareness =0Aand understanding of the various problem areas within the ai= rline=E2=80=99s =0Aroute system. The dispatcher is also the one that plans= the flight, =0Aincluding the routes, the alternates, and the fuel load, an= d is also the one passing along updated info to the crew while enroute. Wh= en weather hits, we=E2=80=99re also the ones that divert flights, and somet= imes, if need =0Abe, we also cancel them.=0AThere are two separate and dist= inct problems with delays, yet Ms. =0AHanni and her band of followers don= =E2=80=99t seem to be able to discern the =0Acritical differences between t= hem. In the last decade or so, there have been a handful of scenarios that= produced 7+ hour delays, including, of course, the thunderstorms that caus= ed Ms. Hanni=E2=80=99s American flight to be diverted to Austin. Admittedl= y, all the above situations were =0Aintolerable and handled poorly, and the= se are the =E2=80=9Capples=E2=80=9D when it comes to the issue of ground de= lays. =0AWith respect to the delay Ms. Hanni suffered, I captured an image = of =0Athe radar that night, and there was a big low pressure system anchore= d =0Aover west Texas resulting in a lengthy line of thunderstorms oriented = =0Anorth-to-south in central Texas. I=E2=80=99m sure Ms. Hanni and her ilk= =0Aprobably think a thunderstorm is a thunderstorm, but there are many =0A= variables associated with them that vary the net operational impact, =0Asuc= h as coverage (Isolated? Scattered? Broken? Solid line?); movement; =0Atren= d; tops (Permitting aircraft to fly over them, or not); and the =0Apotentia= l for the weather to =E2=80=9Ctrain=E2=80=9D over the same location on the = =0Aground. The cells in that line of thunderstorms in Texas the night of = =0AMs. Hanni=E2=80=99s flight moved south-to-north and kept DFW in the weat= her much longer than had this been the more typical line of thunderstorms o= ne =0Asees with an approaching cold front which quickly moves W-E or NW-SE.= =0AI=E2=80=99ve already mentioned the rare =E2=80=9Capples=E2=80=9D of the= ground delay issues. The =E2=80=9Coranges=E2=80=9D are the much more comm= on 2-4 hour delays one sees when =0Athunderstorms impact major airports or = regions, especially on the east =0Acoast. Ms. Hanni=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Csol= ution=E2=80=9D to the =E2=80=9Capples=E2=80=9D problem is NOT going to =0As= olve the =E2=80=9Coranges=E2=80=9D problem, yet I think the majority of Ms.= Hanni=E2=80=99s =0Asuccess with her movement has been the ability to tap i= nto the general =0Apublic=E2=80=99s mistaken notions that ALL delays are eq= ually evil no matter how short the duration; that EVERY operational situati= on is predictable by =0Athe airline with 100% accuracy; and that ANYTIME an= ything goes wrong =0Ait=E2=80=99s the automatic fault of the airline. Ther= e is no one-size-fits all =0Asolution here. Let=E2=80=99s look at some com= mon-sense tests, assumptions, =0Amisassumptions, and observations:=0A=09* T= he general public can relate to the fact that their cross-town car =0Atrip = will take 1x time in good weather and with dry roads, 2x time if =0Ait=E2= =80=99s raining, and maybe 3x time if there=E2=80=99s snow or ice. Is it s= uch a =0Astretch to conclude that aircraft are similarly slowed down in suc= h =0Aconditions?=0A=09* Does it make sense that airlines enjoy delays, or p= erhaps are they =0Ajust forced to tolerate them, since (last time I looked)= the airlines =0Ahave no control over the weather? Nobody at an airline =E2= =80=9Clikes=E2=80=9D delays, =0Abut we realize that a good many of them are= the unfortunate cost of =0Adoing business within the current ATC system. (= The =E2=80=9Coranges=E2=80=9D, not the =0A=E2=80=9Capples.=E2=80=9D)=0A=09*= Likewise, does it make sense that airlines have the ability (at =0A11:07am= ) to predict with absolute certainty that a thunderstorm (or fog, or whatev= er) will impact XYZ airport at 5:23pm, or 6:03pm, or 7:16pm? =0AOnce bad w= eather starts occurring, will it end 1:23 from now, or 2:10 =0Afrom now, or= 3:33 from now?=0A=09* The concept of airspace capacity constraints is a fo= reign one to the general public, as they look up at all that sky and assume= =0A(incorrectly) that it has unlimited capacity. All that open sky, and = =0Athere=E2=80=99s no room for my one flight? Again, that=E2=80=99s an ind= ividual flight =0Aperspective, and one that ignores systemic issues.=0A=09*= As far as =E2=80=9Cjust returning to a gate=E2=80=9D and =E2=80=9Cjust get= ting some portable stairs and buses=E2=80=9D go, where can airlines (and ai= rports) find the magic =0Awands needed conjure up these extra resources (an= d additional gates) =0Awhen needed on short notice? Should every airport h= ave double the =0Anumber of gates normally used =E2=80=9Cjust in case=E2=80= =9D problems occur? Should =0APhoenix have the same number of snow plows t= hat Anchorage does? What=E2=80=99s =0Areasonable for an airport to have?= =0A=09* Airport capacity is a variable commodity, and not a constant one. = =0ALook at the San =0AFrancisco airport acceptance rate (AAR) chart, for ex= ample. Notice =0Athat the AAR (a per hour figure) can vary greatly dependi= ng upon what =0Arunway(s) are, or are not in use. AAR is the =E2=80=9Csupp= ly=E2=80=9D and the flights =0Athat airlines (and non-airlines) fly into th= e airport are the =E2=80=9Cdemand=E2=80=9D. When demand is less than suppl= y, things are good, but when the weather =0Asuch as surface winds, cloud ce= ilings, visibilities change (often =0Asuddenly, despite forecasts) and driv= e a change to the runways in use =0Athat involve a drop in the AAR, demand = then exceeds supply, and delays =0Aensue. Some flights in the air will nee= d to circle, and may even have =0Ato divert. Some flights that haven=E2=80= =99t departed (still on a gate, or on a taxiway awaiting departure) will be= delayed (think metered freeway on =0Aramp here).=0A=09* If a thunderstorm = event precludes aircraft from landing at XYZ =0Aairport for 2 hours, and XY= Z normally handles 50 flights per hour, =0Athat=E2=80=99s 100 flights that = are going to be affected, and they don=E2=80=99t just =0Aall disappear. So= me will be able to hold and get in, others will hold =0Aand divert to alter= nates. Of those flights diverting, some will cancel, and some will refuel = and try and go back to XYZ. Once the weather =0Aimproves at XYZ, ATC will = be working a backlog of traffic=E2=80=94things don=E2=80=99t =0Aimmediately= snap back to normal once the weather clears out.=0A=09* If airline schedul= es are restricted such to always be able to fall =0Awithin an airport=E2=80= =99s worst-case AAR, you=E2=80=99ll be =E2=80=9Csolving=E2=80=9D a problem = that =0Amaybe occurs 20% of the time and unnecessarily restricting things d= uring the 80% of the time when it=E2=80=99s not warranted.=0A=09* If we say= it=E2=80=99s foggy at XYZ and you tell the customer service agent =0Athe w= eather is OK at Aunt Tilly=E2=80=99s house nearby, that=E2=80=99s nice, but= it=E2=80=99s =0Aonly relevant if we=E2=80=99re shooting approaches to Aunt= Tilly=E2=80=99s house and =0Alanding in her driveway. It=E2=80=99s the we= ather at the airport that counts. =0A(You=E2=80=99d be genuinely surprised= at how often this comes up.)=0A=09* One hears a great deal about =E2=80=9C= NextGen=E2=80=9D ATC stuff, and while it will =0Ahelp in some operational c= ontexts, it won=E2=80=99t in many others such as =0Arunway capacity. Also,= if one is trying to get from LaGuardia to O=E2=80=99Hare and there=E2=80= =99s a solid line of thunderstorms from Toronto to Atlanta =0Atopping 50,00= 0 feet, it matters not whether the flight is navigating =0Ausing VORs, GPS,= Boy Scout compass, or taxiing on Interstate 80=E2=80=93you=E2=80=99re =0AN= OT going to get through the weather, and there will be delays.=0A=09* Pleas= e keep in mind that airline employees are not all =0Ainterchangeable. Cust= omer contact personnel don=E2=80=99t have detailed =0Aknowledge of the spec= ifics of ATC delays, only that there are ATC =0Adelays. Likewise, many pil= ots only have their viewpoint of their =0Aspecific flight, and not much awa= reness of any systemic issues. It=E2=80=99s no different than walking into= a hospital. It=E2=80=99s unreasonable to expect =0Adetailed surgical ques= tions to be answered by anyone other than by a =0Asurgeon=E2=80=94an admiss= ions clerk won=E2=80=99t do=E2=80=93and it=E2=80=99s unreasonable to expect= =0Athat clerk to be trained to answer surgical questions.=0AIn closing, I= =E2=80=99ll reiterate that nothing that I=E2=80=99ve written should be =0Ac= onstrued as acceptance of the delay that Ms. Hanni and others =0Aexperience= d in that handful of really lengthy delay situations. =0AIrrespective of h= owever well-meaning her efforts might have been, her =0Apushing of a one-si= ze-fits-all solution is going to end up being =0Aseverely counter-productiv= e. By DOT=E2=80=99s new 3-hour rule and the huge =0Afines the airlines are= now facing, it is the height of financial =0Airresponsibility (if not insa= nity) for any airline to risk allowing EACH aircraft that busts the 3-hour = limit to incur a multi-million dollar =0Afine. Pre-emptive cancellations w= ill occur earlier than the 3-hour =0Amark, so as to ensure aircraft can get= through any taxiway gridlock and =0Aget back to the gate before the bell d= oes =E2=80=9Cding=E2=80=9D at 3 hours. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you wish to unsubscribe from the AIRLINE List, please send an E-mail to: "listserv@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx". Within the body of the text, only write the following:"SIGNOFF AIRLINE".