=20 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- This article was sent to you by someone who found it on SFGate. The original article can be found on SFGate.com here: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=3D/c/a/2008/08/19/BURA12D9BO= .DTL --------------------------------------------------------------------- Tuesday, August 19, 2008 (SF Chronicle) Bay Area airports expect Labor Day downturn George Raine, Chronicle Staff Writer (08-18) 19:09 PDT -- Many Americans will choose a backyard hammock over = an airline flight during the long Labor Day weekend this year, according to a report released Monday by a trade association representing major U.S. carriers. In yet another indicator of a sputtering world economy, the Air Transport Association of America forecasts that 16 million passengers will travel globally on U.S. airlines from Aug. 27 to Sept. 3, a decline of 5.7 percent from the 17 million passengers estimated to have traveled on U.S. airlines one year ago. The reasons for the dip are all too familiar: a conspiracy of high energy prices, rising airfares, airline schedule cuts and a steep economic downturn. "Economic uncertainty and the heavy hit from sky-high energy prices mean that many vacation and business travelers are choosing to stay closer to home - if they go at all," said James May, president and chief executive officer of the Washington-based association. Airlines are decreasing capacity and trimming jobs as they struggle with the price of jet fuel, which, although it has declined somewhat this summer, has averaged $160.47 per barrel this year, a 79 percent increase from the $89.82 it cost last year during the same time. The projected decline in passengers represents a 6.5 percent drop in domestic travel and a 1 percent increase in international travel, according to the trade association. A similar story is playing out in the Bay Area: Passenger traffic at Oakland International Airport will drop 10 percent compared with last year's end-of-summer holiday weekend because of the loss of three airlines in April - Aloha, ATA and Skybus. The three airlines carried 10 percent of the 14.6 million passengers who used Oakland in 2007. The falloff at Oakland International - where a 10-year run of growth is ending this year - will worsen Sept. 3 when American Airlines and Continental Airlines pull out of Oakland, both discontinuing their three daily departures, along with TACA, an airline that had three weekly flights to El Salvador. The decline "is the result of us losing air service because of the airlines dealing with high fuel costs and the downturn in the economy," said airport spokeswoman Rosemary Barnes. "Our focus continues to be talking to airlines, either existing ones or those who do not serve Oakland, about opportunities here to expand or begin service." San Jose down, too Mineta San Jose International Airport passenger traffic is off 2.6 perce= nt over the past 12 months and was down 8.6 percent in July compared with a year ago, said spokesman David Vossbrink. He fully expects a lighter Labor Day weekend, too, as airlines are reducing the number of flights they have offered and raising fares. "On top of that, there is an overall sense that passengers who have some discretion whether they travel are becoming more price sensitive because of the economy," Vossbrink said. San Francisco International Airport has fared far better than most airports in recent years, but officials see a slight falloff on the horizon. Passenger traffic in 2007 - 35.8 million people - was 6.6 percent greater than the 2006 figure, said spokeswoman Kandace Bender. There was a 4 percent increase over the Fourth of July weekend travel compared with the 2007 holiday, but Bender said airport officials anticipate a 3 percent decline in the number of airline seats available at SFO in the winter period beginning Nov. 3, the result of scheduling cutbacks. "Undermining all of this is the fact that the U.S. economy is simply not good right now, and when people do not feel confident or economically secure, they cut back on discretionary purchases - travel, dining out, shopping or entertainment," said Henry Harteveldt, an airline analyst at Forrester Research in San Francisco. A Forrester report this month found that U.S. leisure airline round-trip journeys will probably decline 28 percent because of slimmer travel budgets. "We just don't feel flush right now," Harteveldt said. At United Airlines in Chicago, the reduction in capacity is being called "sizing our business appropriately," said spokeswoman Robin Urbanski. For example, one of two daily departures from San Francisco to Frankfurt, Germany, will be discontinued Oct. 25, and United will discontinue daily service to Taipei, Taiwan, on Sept. 2, both examples of adjustments because of the economic pressure on the industry. In May, United postponed plans to launch daily nonstop flights from San Francisco to Guangzhou, China, a major manufacturing center, blaming skyrocketing jet fuel prices. It was a coveted route United had aggressively pursued at the Department of Transportation. United cuts flights Also on Sept. 2, United will begin flying less frequently to 14 U.S. cities - among them Dallas, Boston, Oklahoma City and San Diego. United is seeing fewer bookings and fuller planes as a result of capacity reduction, Urbanski said. Foreign travelers, of course, are flocking to the United States to take advantage of the weak U.S. dollar. Overseas resident arrivals into California airports were up 7.7 percent between January and May versus the same period in 2007, according to the California Travel and Tourism Commission. The economic doldrums are acute in Hawaii, a five-hour flight from the West Coast. For June, total air visitor expenditures decreased 13.5 percent, or $153= .2 million, from the same month last year, to $982.4 million, according to the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. For the month, there were 16.5 percent fewer visitors from Western state= s, 17 percent fewer from Eastern states, and 10 percent fewer tourists from Japan, compared with 2007, the department said. E-mail George Raine at graine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ----------------------------= ------------------------------------------ Copyright 2008 SF Chronicle <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you wish to unsubscribe from the AIRLINE List, please send an E-mail to: "listserv@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx". Within the body of the text, only write the following:"SIGNOFF AIRLINE".