SFGate: Virgin America grows as rivals cut back

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Saturday, May 24, 2008 (SF Chronicle)
Virgin America grows as rivals cut back
George Raine, Chronicle Staff Writer


   In March, about the time that Frontier Airlines sought bankruptcy
protection and Aloha Airlines and ATA Airlines went out of business, the
investors in Virgin America poured an additional $100 million into the
only airline based in California.
   Is the price of oil about to tumble back to Earth? Can Virgin America see
a turnaround in the soft economy that is not coming up on the rest of the
airline industry's radar?
   The answer is no to both of those questions. In fact, it may have been t=
he
worst of times to be a startup, with jet fuel prices chewing up more
marginal carriers and deflating the legacy carriers, but, notwithstanding
the crude oil bill reaching nearly $135 per barrel this week, the
9-month-old airline with offices in Burlingame is in a growth spurt and
likes its chances.
   With the rest of the industry staggering under the burden of rising costs
- American Airlines saying this week it will cut domestic capacity by 12
percent and shed jobs in the fourth quarter - here's the view from
Burlingame:
   "I would rather be growing in this environment than shrinking in this
environment," said C. David Cush, 48, the president and chief executive
officer, who arrived in December after 20 years of senior management
experience at American Airlines.
   "Growing cautiously and opportunistically feels pretty good" compared wi=
th
the alternative of downsizing, said Cush. "Shrinking is very inefficient."
   Apparently, the airline's investors felt the same way. In March, the
original investors poured in round two of funding. The investors are VAI
Partners LLC, a group funded by private investment firms Black Canyon
Capital in Los Angeles and Cyrus Capital Partners in New York, which are
separate entities, and Virgin Group.
   The $100 million infusion gives the privately held company $400 million =
in
shareholder-contributed capital, although some of that is going toward
buying Airbus airplanes.
   "These guys are long-term investors," said Cush. "They certainly
understand what they are getting into."
   He added, "The fuel cost is certainly a bigger mountain than any of us h=
ad
anticipated six months ago or two years ago when this investor group came
together. But it's something that everyone in the industry has to deal
with." Anchor SFO tenant
   Today, Virgin America has 17 airplanes in the air and one standby. It has
1,500 employees and serves seven U.S. cities, just a tiny fraction of what
Cush formerly helped manage at American Airlines - more than 4,000 daily
flights and 1,000 aircraft.
   The carrier will become the anchor tenant at SFO Terminal 2 after it is
renovated in late 2010. It currently operates out of the new international
terminal.
   Virgin America is sized to operate 50 to 60 airplanes, said Cush, so the
sooner it has them in the inventory, the better off the company is,
because it can leverage fixed costs against a bigger revenue base. Niche
as a hip airline
   It certainly has a name with brand equity - it licenses the Virgin brand
from minority investor Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Group - and a business
plan with which it wants to carve out a comfortable niche for a hip
airline.
   "I think the last 20 years of evidence in the marketplace has shown that
U.S. consumers are increasingly interested in low-cost carriers and in new
entrants, whether they be low cost or not," said Cush.
   Long before Virgin America was off the ground, the carrier said it likely
would be serving 30 cities within five years. That may have been a little
ambitious, said Cush.
   He added that he sees a ceiling for the airline. "In all honesty, I would
not be surprised if 30 cities are the most we ever fly to, maybe a few
more than that." He also said he thinks the business model "tops out at
125 to 150 airplanes," serving large urban centers.
   Virgin America has routes from San Francisco to Los Angeles, New York,
Washington, San Diego and Seattle. It also flies from New York to Los
Angeles, from Los Angeles to Washington and from Seattle to Los Angeles.
   Henry Harteveldt, a former airline executive and industry analyst at
Forrester Research in San Francisco, said he thinks a Virgin America
ceiling, if one truly is in place, is adjustable. "If they detect an
opportunity for prudent growth, smart growth, they and their investors
will explore it," he said.
   But the more immediate issue for Virgin America, Harteveldt said, is to
add destinations, like Chicago, Atlanta, Boston, Dallas and Miami, "and
then start knitting cities together to provide more utility to business
travelers."
   Its service to Seattle elicited a prompt response from Alaska Airlines,
which began its Seattle-San Francisco service in 1979 and is protective of
its California franchise, which vice president of sales Steve Jarvis said
represents 40 percent of its revenue. Alaska Airlines increased its
schedule as soon as Virgin America announced its flights, and has since
increased it a second time. "We will continue to serve (California) and
make sure everyone knows how important it is to us," said Alaska Airlines'
Jarvis. More slots are essential
   Virgin America's success hangs on access to airport slots.
   "That's one of the biggest issues we have in front of us - how are we
going to make sure that we can get into the airports that we need to get
into at the times we need to get into them in order to remain competitive
with the big boys," said Cush.
   The case he made to the Department of Transportation in October 2007 for
slots at New York's JFK International Airport and New Jersey's Newark
International Airport demonstrates his point:
   Virgin America asked for 28 slots at Kennedy and was given 20 - or 10
departures and 10 arrivals. The carrier felt it was treated fairly. At
Newark, Virgin America asked for 16 slots, eight departures and eight
arrivals, and got nothing. Actually, it was offered time and space, but it
would have required a departure from San Francisco at 3 or 4 a.m. - "not
commercially viable times, I would say," said Cush.
   In February, Virgin America sought authority to fly from Los Angeles to
San Jose del Cabo, Mexico, and the government awarded the route to United
Airlines, with Delta Air Lines the backup. Virgin starved for gates
   Cush understood the Department of Transportation's rationale. The
government questioned Virgin America's ability to begin operating the
route in 90 days and was certain of United Airlines' ability.
   But the allotment of routes and slots raises the question about whether
incumbents are favored. Cush argues airport slots turn on basic usage
rights, not ownership rights, "and our view is that simply having been
there first is not a license for using those things in an inefficient
manner for all of eternity."
   Virgin America now has an application to serve O'Hare International
Airport but is in a good position in Chicago: The airport is opening
another runway in November and wants new airline capacity.
   But the rub for the new entrant from Burlingame is capacity restraints,
already seen at Kennedy and Newark, and that potentially may limit Virgin
America's opportunities.
   "What is going on is you have an air traffic control system that is out =
of
date. It is overloaded. You've got a limited amount of concrete that has
been poured in this country over the last couple of decades," he said.
   Meantime, competition is vigorous, particularly in an anemic economy
featuring sky-high fuel prices. Virgin America's charge is to create a
product, said Cush, that "people are going to be willing to pay $20 or $30
more to fly Virgin America just because it is going to be worth it."

   E-mail George Raine at graine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx -------------------------=
---------------------------------------------
Copyright 2008 SF Chronicle

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