=20 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- This article was sent to you by someone who found it on SFGate. The original article can be found on SFGate.com here: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=3D/c/a/2008/03/20/DDQ4VD9PU.= DTL --------------------------------------------------------------------- Thursday, March 20, 2008 (SF Chronicle) Big summer trip? Given the economy,you may do well to wait for bargains. Ed Perkins, Tribune Media Services If you're planning an extensive trip this summer, my best guess is that you should hold off buying air tickets and making hotel reservations until two or three months before your trip. Just about everyone who follows the economic picture is predicting a continued slowdown, recession or whatever you might want to call it. In response, I look for overall travel demands this summer to be sharply weaker than last year's, and the traditional supplier response to weakening demand is price-cutting. Given the cost pressures on airlines and hotels, however, their promotions are apt to have fairly short windows - both to buy and to travel. I've already received a flurry of promotional press releases for deals in April, and I'm expecting more. Be warned, however, that my take runs counter to some of the advice I've seen from some good sources. On the airline side, I especially look for some action on fares to Europ= e. Right now, the big lines are still posting relatively high peak-summer fares, hoping to snare a goodly number of travelers at those rates. For example, June round trips from Chicago to London are currently around $1,100, plus taxes and fees. As another example, for travel through March 31, Alitalia was promoting round trips from Chicago or several East Coast gateways to major Italian cities for $552 to $644, including tax; posted fares for July are currently more than double those rates. If demand for travel to Europe turns out to be as weak as I expect, I just don't see how the airlines can sustain the peak fares they've posted in advance. To me, that means the odds are good that some lines will offer peak-season promotional deals at lower figures. Domestic airfares are also likely to fluctuate. The airlines need to generate higher total revenues to offset increasing fuel costs, but they also need to generate enough passengers to fill seats. Predicting specific rises and falls in that environment is almost impossible; before you buy, I suggest that you log on to www.farecast.com for some guidance. Farecast has also applied its prediction technology to a few popular international routes. Unfortunately, its predictions cover only a short purchasing window; they won't do you much good yet for midsummer. For a long-term take on times when airfares may be lowest, log on to Hotwire's TripStarter, www.hotwire.com/tripstarter. Big European hotel chains are likely to do much the same as the transatlantic airlines. A release from worldwide giant Accor, for example, showed promotional rates at a bunch of popular European cities at well under 100 euros (about $157 U.S.) a night in the chain's midscale Mercure brand. A few in smaller cities are cheaper than 50 euros ($78). So far, I haven't seen many of those "guaranteed" dollar rates at less than the current exchange rate, but I'm expecting to see some in next month. Domestically, I think rates will hold pretty well - certainly at the budget end of the scale. Given the likely tightening of business travel budgets, however, you may see some good spring and summer promotions in a few of the upscale brands. Clearly, my "wait and see" buying strategy requires that you keep a close eye on the travel marketplace. You can do that in several ways: -- Sign up for one or more of the free e-mail newsletters from SmarterTravel.com (a site for which I also run a Q-and-A forum): weekly Last-Minute Airfares and Deal Alert; bi-weekly Cruise News; and monthly student, senior and family travel bulletins. -- Sign up with one of the big dot-com agencies' fare-notification programs: Expedia, Orbitz and Travelocity all offer one or more free fare-tracking and deal-notification services. As I noted at the outset, predicting when to buy is always a crapshoot - will you lose out by waiting, or will you miss out on a promotion by buying early? Lots of my peers favor buying now; I'm still in the waiting camp. But it's your call. E-mail syndicated columnist Ed Perkins at perkins@xxxxxxxxx For column archives or to comment, go to sfgate.com/travel and follow the links. =A9 Tribune Media Services ----------------------------------------------------= ------------------ Copyright 2008 SF Chronicle <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you wish to unsubscribe from the AIRLINE List, please send an E-mail to: "listserv@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx". Within the body of the text, only write the following:"SIGNOFF AIRLINE".