Boeing 787 Dreamliner set for flightless debut
Media, analysts will get first look at unveiling in Seattle on July 8
By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Jul 6, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- It won't have passenger seats, it won't fly -- in fact, it won't even motor itself down the runway. Still, when the 787 Dreamliner is unveiled at its Seattle-area factory on July 8, it will culminate an intense push by Boeing & Co. to stamp out fears its star aircraft is running into delays.
The roll-out of the 787 on 07-08-07 -- billed a "premiere" by Boeing (BA: news) and to be hosted by former NBC journalist Tom Brokaw -- will show off the lightweight, long-range passenger aircraft with all the main parts snapped together, from carbon-fiber nose to titanium tail.
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It will be the first time media and financial analysts will get to see the aircraft in a form other than artists' renderings, though it won't have such essential parts as onboard aviation electronics.
As the first major roll-out Boeing has made since showing off its 777 in 1994, it has not been devoid of hiccups.
The Chicago-based company has acknowledged a shortage in some small, but key, parts integral to the Dreamliner -- like thumbnail-sized titanium fasteners.
A surge in new aircraft orders at Boeing and rival Airbus has put a strain on production of these fasteners. That supply kink has forced Boeing to resort to temporary fasteners for the roll-out. It will switch these before the plane makes its maiden flight, scheduled for late August or September, said spokesman Peter Conte.
The possibility of delays has sent shivers through the financial community, which has watched Boeing drum up a bigger-than-expected 635 orders from 45 customers for the 787, making it the most popular launch for a commercial airplane ever. That demand has helped Boeing shares gain 130% since it announced its first order for the Dreamliner on April 26, 2004.
J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Nadol estimates the 787 program could be as much as four months behind schedule, with the "power-on" pushed back to Aug. 15 from April 21. There's a chance first-flight could be delayed less than the full four months, and Boeing could still make its May 2008 delivery target, according to Nadol.
Nadol, in a cautionary note issued in mid-June at the start of the Paris Air Show, wrote: "We believe that the schedule appears challenging given the four-month delay and the record speed at which flight testing would need to be completed to meet targets."
"This is such a different airplane," said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group in Washington, D.C. Boeing has shown there is demand for its product with a record number of new orders, he said. But it still has to prove it's got the technical risks in hand.
The roll-out "appears to be happening. The real challenge might be ramping up production," he said.
Boeing says it's made no delays to the Dreamliner's inaugural flight or delivery targets.
Avoiding Airbus pitfalls
There's a great deal of pressure on Boeing to make sure the kind of hold-ups that plagued Airbus production of its super-jumbo A380 don't stall the 787.
Airbus, a unit of the European Aeronautics Defence Space Co. , made a huge push to get the A380 into the air two years ago. But wiring problems, among others, forced EADS to put off deliveries for two years.
Both Boeing and Airbus have spent years developing a modern fleet of aircraft that will improve fuel efficiency for carriers in the face of rising oil prices.
While Airbus sought to cut costs by carrying more passengers in its extra-large, long-haul carriers, Boeing focused on shedding weight. The 787 models will carry 200 to 300 passengers and weigh as much as 40,000 pounds less than comparable commercial aircraft, using about 20% less fuel.
Dreamliner facts
210-250 passengers
197 feet
186 feet
56 feet
Up to 8,200 nautical miles
Much of the weight reduction comes from choosing plastic-like composite materials. For instance, the 787 will use 40,000 to 50,000 fewer fasteners than a plane mostly made of aluminum and other metal parts.
This change in materials has raised a new set of challenges for Boeing in the assembly hangar.
With this latest model, Boeing has veered from its usual practice of building planes by tacking on aluminum parts as the unfinished craft moves along an assembly line. Instead, it has commissioned vendors around the world to make the jet's major parts, such as the main body.
Companies including Japan's Toray Industries, Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. (SPR: news) of Wichita, Kansas, and a unit of Italy's Finmeccanica are making or shaping carbon composite materials into the fuselage, wings and fins.
Similar to the tough plastics used in high-end skis, carbon composites are light-weight, rust-resistant and strong. The military has used composites extensively in its aircraft. But the use of composites on such a large scale is something new in commercial aviation. That change in material -- plus a reworked production process -- raises the risk of delivery snags, analysts say.
Over the past few months, vendors for the Dreamliner have shipped parts to Boeing's Everett plant in a special plane to that city just outside Seattle. Boeing workers have bolted the plane together. See story on Dreamliner's construction.
Show time
On Sunday, Boeing will allow its customers, journalists and workers in Everett, as well as some 22,000 Boeing employees and retirees watching via simulcast from Seattle's Qwest Field, to see it with a fresh paint job and equipped with engines and landing gear. It won't drive out of the hangar itself, but be towed instead from a paint hangar to the final assembly building.
Because of its fuel efficiency, the airplane has become a "deal-changer" for carriers, said Mike Boyd, president of aviation consultancy the Boyd Group.
"It's become an economic imperative for any international carrier," and will likely make carriers retire older mid-sized jets long before they are worn out, he said.
Japan's All Nippon Airlines Ltd. (ALNPF: news) is scheduled to receive the very first deliveries of the airplane, on May 2008.
North American passengers curious about the Dreamliner's advertised creature comforts, such as higher humidity in the cabin, have the best shot of getting an early flight on the new plane by booking with some of the first airlines scheduled to take delivery: Northwest Airlines Co. (NWA: news) , Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL: news) or Air Canada .
Laura Mandaro is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
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