SFGate: Where to go online before going anywhere

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Thursday, March 1, 2007 (SF Chronicle)
Where to go online before going anywhere
Ed Perkins


   Buy an airline ticket now or wait? That's one of the questions I get most
frequently from my Q-and-A column on smartertravel.com. Although the
Internet has provided you with more airfare data than you've ever had, it
still can't answer this question.
   There are actually two elements to the "when" question: when to fly, and
when to buy. You can answer the when-to-fly question fairly accurately:
Almost all of the big online Web sites such as Expedia, Orbitz and
Travelocity, as well as individual airline sites, offer flexible fare
search options to check for potentially lower prices if you can change
your flights dates a few days or a week. And just a few such searches can
give you longer-term seasonal fare variations.
   The more troublesome "when" question is when to buy your ticket. My usual
answer is that buying an airline ticket is like buying a major appliance:
The best time to buy is during one of the frequent airfare sales. But I
can't fully answer you when you ask, "The fare quoted today for my trip
next summer is $389 -- should I buy now or wait for a better deal?" If
there is no current sale airfare for your travel dates, my usual answer is
that if you're looking more than three or four months further ahead,
you're probably better off waiting. But that's strictly guesswork, not
hard data.
   Farecast, a new online service, is trying to take the guesswork out of t=
he
"when to buy" question. Its site, www.farecast.com, is now up in a beta
version, meaning it still has some tweaking left to be done, but it's
ready for use by consumers.
   Here are the highlights: Full forecasts are currently available to/from =
75
of the busiest domestic airports, for a total of some 2,000 individual
airport pairs, for trips of two to eight nights with departure dates
within 90 days. When you enter your origin and destination cities and
travel dates, Farecast shows you:
   -- The lowest current fares on every important U.S. airline other than
Southwest.
   -- A graph of the lowest fare sold within the past 60 days.
   -- Its prediction of whether today's lowest fare is likely to increase,
decrease or remain the same for the next seven days.
   If either of the airports you enter is not one of the 75, Farecast
provides the same search for the lowest available fare and provides the
same great tables and graphs, but not the forecast. Lowest fares shown
apply to seats actually available, not low list prices that may not be
available on a given flight.
   If you want to buy, the display links you directly with the site of the
airline offering the best price and schedule to meet your needs. And you
can lock in the quoted price for a week by paying an extra $9.95.
   Farecast also provides a wealth of supporting data and graphics, includi=
ng
how fares compare by airline, number of stops and times of day. It also
offers a flexible option to show fares before and after the dates you
originally entered.
   In its current version, Farecast certainly doesn't answer everyone's
"when" question. It doesn't provide forecasts for lots of domestic routes
or any international routes. If you're heading to/from a city with
multiple airports, you have to search each airport-to-airport route
separately.
   But the biggest weakness is that the price-change forecast covers only t=
he
following week. Travelers who send me questions are usually concerned with
changes over several months, or at least several weeks, not just one week.
   Still, Farecast is an extremely important first step. Even if the
forecasts don't extend more than a week, the historical data at least give
you some indication of where today's fares are, compared with where
they've been. I would certainly recommend a visit to www.farecast.com for
any travelers wondering when to buy their next air ticket. And Farecast
will undoubtedly gain more functionality over coming months.

   E-mail syndicated columnist Ed Perkins at eperkins@xxxxxxxxx -----------=
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Copyright 2007 SF Chronicle

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