Fwd: SFO's business still turbulent

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--- In BATN@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "9/10 SF Chronicle" <batn@...> wrote:

Published Sunday, September 10, 2006, in the San Francisco Chronicle

9/11: Five Years Later
SFO's business still turbulent

Although ridership has been gradually bouncing back, passenger load
remains down about 10 percent from 2000

By David Armstrong

The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks took place 3,000 miles away, 
but
the effect is still being felt at a decidedly changed San Francisco
International Airport.

Like all airports in North America, SFO was closed to commercial
aviation for several days after Sept. 11.  When the planes started
flying again, it reopened to a very different aviation environment.

Five years after the attacks, SFO -- Northern California's busiest
airport and one of the nation's major gateways to Asia -- is home to
fewer airlines, fewer passengers and fewer flights than before
Sept. 11.  Forced to operate with suddenly reduced revenue, SFO put
several major construction projects on hold and cut its staff by a
third.

And SFO, like other American airports, bristles with stricter 
security
than it did before the attacks.  All told, SFO spent $150 million to
beef up security, with the federal government reimbursing about $50
million.

Over the past two years, SFO has gradually been recovering, according
to spokesman Michael McCarron, although the initial shock was severe.

"Our business was down dramatically," McCarron recalled, saying the
falloff began before Sept. 11.  "Six months prior to that, the dot-
com
boom collapsed, and that summer of 2001, business was down.  Then 
came
Sept. 11."

>From handling 41 million passengers in 2000, when it was one of the
world's 10 busiest airports, SFO plummeted to 29 million passengers 
in
2001.

Shortly afterward, the SARS outbreak in Asia and Toronto, the Iraq 
war
and avian flu further hampered business.  But, buoyed by a
surprisingly strong global economy and pent-up demand for travel,
civil aviation gradually began to recover.

This year, driven by surging demand for international travel, SFO
officials expect nearly 37 million passengers.  International traffic
is growing by about 4 percent a year, according to McCarron, though
domestic demand is still flat.  Free-spending international fliers
account for 25 percent of SFO passengers and generate 42 percent of
its passenger revenue.

SFO, like most U.S. airports, has not fully recaptured the lucrative
business traveler, who typically books flights at the last minute and
pays a high fare.  Such travelers now often drive to their
destinations or use e-mail or videoconferencing instead of flying,
said Kevin Mitchell, head of the Business Travel Coalition, a trade
organization for corporate travel planners.

Nationwide, "the high-yield business traveler traffic is 
approximately
50 percent of what it was prior to 9/11," according to a coalition
report released Sept. 1.

Still, travelers are learning to live with a certain amount of risk,
and many people have to fly, especially if they are going overseas 
for
business or leisure.  Even the high oil prices of the past few years
-- which drive up airlines' operating expenses and raise air fares --
have not stopped the recovery, though they may be slowing the pace.

The devastating confluence of Sept. 11 and the dot-com bust came just
after SFO had taken on substantial bond debt to finance a
just-completed $1 billion international terminal -- the biggest
terminal in the United States at 2.5 million square feet -- and was
ramping up to build a new airport hotel, renovate the former
international terminal for domestic use and reconfigure runways to
handle traffic that had mushroomed in the late 1990s.

The sky was the limit -- or so it seemed.  The dot-com collapse and
the terrorist attacks changed all that.

Like other U.S. airports, SFO's post-Sept. 11 credit rating suffered.
Standard & Poor's, for example, dropped SFO's credit rating from A+
with a stable outlook to A with a negative outlook in September 2001,
according to S&P analyst Kurt Forsgren.

The weak Bay Area economy, SFO's paucity of thriving low-cost 
carriers
that provide consumer choice and its reliance on ailing United
Airlines, which handles about half of all passengers and flights at
the airport, drove the S&P downgrade, Forsgren said.

"We had a large mortgage on a home no one was coming to live in,
basically," McCarron said of the dark days right after Sept. 11.

SFO, accordingly, put the terminal renovation -- expected to cost 
$150
million to $160 million -- on hold.  It also set aside plans for the
hotel, and reduced staff from 1,800 employees to below 1,200.

Additionally, SFO lowered landing fees for airlines and reduced rents
for airport retailers and restaurateurs struggling during the
downturn.  "It would do us no good to have them go out of business,"
McCarron said, adding that their rents have returned to normal in the
past year.

But SFO's efforts to lure low-fare airlines, which have grabbed
increasing market share from traditional carriers such as United in
recent years, have been spotty.

United rolled out its own low-fare unit Ted at SFO in 2004, but
discount leader Southwest Airlines pulled out of SFO, fledgling
discount carrier Independence Air stayed aloft for less than a year
and discounter ATA decamped from SFO to Oakland -- a growing rival
ruled chiefly by such low-cost carriers as Southwest and JetBlue
Airways.

Meanwhile, Virgin America, a planned low-fare airline that announced
SFO will be its headquarters back in June 2004, has yet to win the
Federal Aviation Administration's certification to fly.

While SFO struggled in a radically changed business environment, it
scrambled to keep up with the post-Sept. 11 need for intensified
security.

The National Guard, patrolling the airport immediately after Sept. 
11,
is remembered for an incident in which a guardsman shot himself in 
the
buttocks while holstering his weapon.

When the new Department of Homeland Security put its Transportation
Security Administration in charge, SFO had to let go of most of its
baggage screeners.  Many were Philippine citizens who lacked newly
required U.S. citizenship [BATN: always a guarantee of professional
proficiency!!], and some couldn't pass tests for English proficiency,
said the TSA's Edward Gomez, federal security director at SFO.

About 150 of the 1,000 baggage screeners at SFO are holdovers, Gomez
said, and are employed under TSA guidelines by private contractor
Covenant Aviation.  SFO is "by far the largest" of the seven
U.S. airports using private screeners, he said.  Others use TSA
employees.

McCarron said lines to pass through security checkpoints take on
average seven or eight minutes -- much less time than at many other
U.S. and foreign airports.  He also said that private contractors 
give
SFO flexibility in scheduling, which shortens customers' wait times.
Gomez agreed, saying the airlines give the TSA daily estimates of how
many passengers have booked flights, which allows security officials
to schedule baggage screeners accordingly.

On a recent weekday afternoon, United passenger William Hill said he
found the wait acceptable at SFO's international terminal, where he
planned to board a flight to Beijing.  "It's not too bad," he said.
"At least it's moving, which is more than I can say for Newark 
(N.J.),
where I must have waited for an hour and a half.  The people here
(screeners) are pretty nice, too.  They're usually polite."

The TSA uses plainclothes air marshals to observe passengers before
they board planes, looking for unusual behavior that could betray
potential troublemakers, Gomez said.  SFO also employs 1,400 closed
circuit video cameras, the most of any airport in the country, to
monitor people in the terminals, and boasts this country's first
explosive detection system for X-raying every checked bag, not just a
sampling.

"We have layered security levels," Gomez said.  "A lot of what we do,
the public doesn't see.  We need to be unpredictable in what we do."

New regulations restricting the type of liquids and gels in carry-on
luggage -- prompted by the Aug. 10 plot in Britain to blow up
U.S.-bound jetliners -- are the latest security wrinkle.

McCarron says the public has largely been cooperative and seems
well-informed about the use of liquids in carry-ons, but acknowledged
that tighter rules have hurt some SFO retailers who sell liquid
products.  He cited terminal 3's Body Shop and a wine store as
businesses whose trade has been hurt in recent weeks.

But the worst seems to be over for SFO, McCarron said, pointing out
that SFO's credit ratings have recently edged upward.  Standard &
Poor's and Moody's give A ratings with stable outlooks to SFO.  Fitch
Ratings gives SFO a slightly better A1 with a stable outlook.

When the largest tenant, United, slid into bankruptcy in December
2002, "there were some nail-biting days," McCarron said.  But United
"never fell behind in their payments" on any rented facilities at 
SFO,
a United creditor that had observer status in Bankruptcy Court.  The
Chicago airline emerged from Chapter 11 on Feb. 1 and posted its 
first
profit in six years in the second quarter.

Even during its three-year journey through Chapter 11, United began
service between SFO and Beijing and between SFO and Ho Chi Minh City
via Hong Kong.  Next year, it plans to resume service between SFO and
Seoul.

All this is in line with broad trends at SFO, where about 45 percent
of the airport's 8.2 million international fliers come from or go to
Asia -- led by booming China and India and prosperous Japan.

Indeed, international travel is strong worldwide, according to the
trade organization Airports Council International, which reported a 5
percent rise in international travel for July 2006 from July 2005.
Domestic traffic was flat, the council reported.

With its strong position as an international gateway to Asia and
Europe, SFO is well-situated, McCarron said.

And while passenger confidence ebbs and flows with reported security
threats such as last month's alleged United Kingdom bombing plot, the
slow economic recovery appears to still be on track, McCarron said.

"The latest hiccup didn't have much effect on us after the first 48
hours," McCarron said of the bombing plot, which caused chaos at
London's Heathrow airport.  "Traffic remained strong throughout the
rest of the summer.  We're seeing the usual post-Labor Day slump, but
nothing big.  People want to keep moving on with their lives.  They
don't want to be scared."


E-mail David Armstrong at davidarmstrong@...


The impact on SFO The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, along with the
dot-com bust, caused a drop in passenger traffic from 41 million
passengers in 2000 to 29 million passengers a year later.

The airport has had to shelve such projects as a new airport hotel 
and
renovated terminal. Combined with political opposition, unstable
finances also stayed a reconfiguration of its runways.

It cut its staff by a third.

It has had to spend $150 million to beef up security; a third of the
cost was reimbursed by the federal government.

--- End forwarded message ---

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