NYTimes.com Article: Airline Losses Still Mount, and No Relief Is on Horizon

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Airline Losses Still Mount, and No Relief Is on Horizon

January 20, 2005
 By MICHELINE MAYNARD 



 

Can things get any worse for the nation's airline industry?
Yes, say the beleaguered chief executives at American and
Northwest Airlines, whose companies reported steep
fourth-quarter losses yesterday. 

Even Southwest Airlines, which has been profitable since
1973, reported a 15 percent drop in net income in the
fourth quarter. It is expected to be the only major airline
to post a profit for the quarter or the year. 

When 2004 began, the nation's airlines were hopeful that
they could collectively break even or post a small profit,
reversing a slump that began in 2000. Instead, analysts and
executives now say they believe the industry's troubles
will continue in 2005. 

"I have no hope that turmoil will end any time soon,
perhaps in my lifetime," Southwest's chief executive, Gary
C. Kelly, who is 50, said yesterday. 

All the airlines, including Southwest, are being battered
by fuel prices, which have climbed 64 percent in the last
year. 

The industry also is beset with fare wars, led by Delta Air
Lines, which cut its fares by up to 50 percent two weeks
ago, a move matched by most rivals. 

American, the industry's biggest airline, said it lost $387
million in the fourth quarter, or $2.40 a share, more than
triple the $111 million, or 70 cents a share, it lost in
the same quarter in 2003. Shares of its parent, the AMR
Corporation, fell 11 cents, to $8.76 yesterday, a 1.2
percent drop. 

American said it spent $477 million more on jet fuel last
quarter than it had the previous year, meaning it otherwise
would have been profitable. For the year, American said it
lost $761 million, down from its loss of $1.2 billion in
2003. 

The airline's chief executive, Gerard J. Arpey, said the
fourth-quarter performance was a "disappointing end to a
very difficult year." 

Earlier this month, American matched the fare cuts at
Delta, which reduced its prices by up to 50 percent and
eliminated several requirements like a Saturday night stay.


Northwest has also matched the fare cuts, but neither
airline joined Delta in placing limits on coach and
business-class fares. Even so, analysts say each airline
stands to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue
by matching Delta's cuts. 

Northwest, the fifth-largest domestic airline, said
yesterday that it lost $420 million in the fourth quarter,
or $4.84 a share. That compared with a profit of $363
million a year ago, or $3.60 a share. 

The company's stock fell 37 cents yesterday, to $8.04, down
4.4 percent. Northwest said its loss widened to $878
million, from a profit of $236 million in 2003. 

Northwest's chief executive, Douglas M. Steenland, said the
airline might have to revisit its request to unions for
$950 million in wage and benefit concessions, which it has
been trying to achieve for more than two years. Only
Northwest's pilots have agreed to cuts, of $265 million. 

Mr. Steenland would not set a timetable for achieving the
cuts, saying only that he hoped they would be in place
sometime this year. 

The comment raised analysts' eyebrows, given the industry's
dire atmosphere. "It is a more stately pace than one would
hope for," said Philip A. Baggaley, an airline industry
analyst with Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. 

But Mr. Baggaley said Northwest might be expecting other
airlines to demand more cuts from their workers,
particularly US Airways and United Airlines, both of which
are in bankruptcy protection. That could help fuel
Northwest's own demands, he said. United is a unit of UAL. 

Meanwhile, Southwest said it earned $56 million, or 7
cents a share, down from $66 million, or 8 cents a share,
in the 2003 quarter. 

Southwest, the country's sixth-biggest airline and the
largest low-fare airline, would have lost money in the
fourth quarter had it not arranged contracts that locked in
fuel prices at below-market rates. Southwest's stock fell
61 cents, to $14.39, down about 4 percent. 

For 2004, Southwest said it earned $313 million, down from
$442 million in 2003. 

Mr. Kelly said he saw no break from high fuel prices. He
also predicted that major airlines would add more capacity
in hopes of attracting passengers with lower airfares. That
combination of higher fuel prices and lower airfares, he
said, would put airlines in a vise. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/20/business/20air.html?ex=1107229474&ei=1&en=a36806457d6e4070


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