Re: Airline Melt-down - Christmas Weekend

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On Comair, I believe the commenter misunderstands the failure mode and
issue, which was software, not hardware.

Duplicate, "backup" software would have tried to solve the same problem
the same way and yielded the same failure.  By contrast, more robust
software -- a new system capable of solving a larger problem size,
faster, which Comair had planned to implement in early 2005 -- might
have made a difference.

Fact is at the end of any crew schedule month, especially at regional
carriers that fly FARs, many crews are near or at max legal hours, where
bid construction hours ~ contractual hours ~ legal hours = FARs.  (After
all, any end-of-month excess availability would be "wasted".)  Add peak
monthly holiday flying, weather, diversions and delays, and you add
hours to earlier projections.  Cancellations subtract hours.  Both
result in out-of-position crews and equipment.  Repositioning after
diversions adds hours back.

Software designed to solve and optimize the "off schedule operations"
(OSO) problem is attempting to solve a very complicated "one-shot"
problem and can easily run out of solutions towards the end of a crew
schedule month, which is what causes it to "crash".  It's not a hardware
issue, it's the inability to reach a workable or feasible solution,
primarily.

Just my opinion, of course.

On USAirways, both commenters ahd it about right.  it was clearly a
combination of individual dereliction of duty out of frustration or
hopelessness on the one-hand, and a failure of management to anticipate
and compensate for what, given they had for a month or more been
incentivizing crews to report for their scheduled shifts, ought to have
been viewed as a likely failure mode, on the other.  This costs them
customers and good will and future revenue in a weak revenue
environment, in a seasonally weak period of the year, AND drives up
their costs to  re-unite passengers and bags and recompense customers to
the extent they attempt to do so.

Agreeing with Mr. Burris, not pretty.  DOT will be second-guessing both
failures.  Ought to be interesting.

- Bob Mann

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Michael A. Burris wrote:

>AIRLINE:
>
>I just watched some talking-heads on the Lehrer News
>Hour discuss the melt-down in the airline sector this
>weekend.
>
>One gentleman from Emery-Riddle University summized
>that Delta should have had a back-up
>system in the event a disaster like the one that
>occured; pilot schedule, in the wings.  And to not
>have one was a serious management fax paus.
>
>With respect to US Airways, the situation was bad to
>begin with and many workers (either really sick or
>otherwise) simply called in sick and that snarled
>things but good.  For an airline looking seriously at
>liquidation, upsetting the customers was the last
>thing that they needed to do.
>
>All in all, a tough weekend for the American airline
>business.
>
>Mike Burris
>Cambridge, Massachusetts
>
>

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