SFGate: Independence Air, battling to survive, retools

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Wednesday, October 27, 2004 (AP)
Independence Air, battling to survive, retools
MATTHEW BARAKAT, AP Business writer


   (10-27) 21:22 PDT McLEAN, Va. (AP) --
   Just four months after its launch, Independence Air is right up there wi=
th
some of the largest U.S. carriers -- in survival mode.
   Its planes less than half full despite dirt-cheap fares, Independence Air
said Wednesday it will overhaul its ticket distribution system, cut
capacity in some markets and negotiate with lenders in order to preserve
cash necessary to avoid bankruptcy.
   The airline's parent company, FLYi, Inc., announced third-quarter losses
Wednesday of $83 million, or $1.82 a share. A year ago the carrier, then
known as Atlantic Coast Airlines, turned a $23 million third-quarter
profit. It operated at the time as a regional carrier for UAL Corp.'s
United Airlines, which is in Chapter 11, and Delta Air Lines Inc., which
is working to avoid it.
   This summer the company embarked on a risky transformation, remaking
itself into a low-fare carrier based at Dulles International Airport. The
airline is unique among low-fare carriers, with a fleet comprised largely
of small, 50-seat regional jets, which generally cost more to operate on a
per-person basis.
   The airline's stock dropped more than 50 percent last week after UBS
Securities analyst Robert Ashcroft warned that the company might have to
file for bankruptcy as soon as January and said "it's clear to us that
FLYi's business plan isn't working."
   The airline believed that round-trip fares as low as $58 would generate
sufficient demand to fill 600 daily departures to 39 East Coast cities,
including many smaller airports like Lansing, Mich., Portland, Maine,
Charleston, W.V. and Dayton, Ohio.
   Company chief executive Kerry Skeen acknowledged on Wednesday, though,
that the airline simply hasn't drawn as many travelers as it expected.
   The airline's load factor, a measurement of how its planes are, dropped
from 45.5 percent in August to 44.4 percent in September. The average
airline load factor is about 72 percent, according to government
statistics.
   As a result, Skeen said Wednesday the airline will abandon its plan to
sell tickets only through its Web site and its 1-800 number. The airline
will now make its tickets available through the Galileo system, which is
used by travel agents, and hopes to make deals with other distribution
networks.
   The airline had thought it could cut costs by several dollars per ticket
by bypassing the distribution networks. But Skeen said Wednesday that
corporations and business travelers -- the key demographic in many of its
markets -- still book flights traditionally.
   Skeen acknowledged in a telephone interview Wednesday that the use of su=
ch
distribution systems is a major strategy change, but said it was necessary
"to help get our product on the shelf."
   Skeen also said the airline was cutting capacity in underperforming
markets, reducing daily departures from 16 to 10 in Newark, 16 to 12 in
Boston, 17 to 13 at New York's JFK airport, and 14 to nine in Raleigh.
   Again, the airline had initially touted its frequency of flights as a key
to making its hub-and-spoke system work, by offering frequent connections
and getting a better utilization rate out of its aircraft.
   Skeen pointed out that the reductions are in the airline's larger market=
s,
and said the company has been most successful in some of the smaller
markets that have never had a low-fare airline, and that Independence Air
is indeed generating additional demand in those markets with low prices.
   Soaring fuel prices have exacerbated the airline's woes, as has
competition from other airlines that have matched its fares.
   In fact, other airlines have criticized Independence Air for recklessly
implementing an unsustainable business plan that is hurting all airlines
that operate on the East Coast, including bankrupt US Airways Group Inc.
   AirTran Holdings Inc. chief executive Joe Leonard said Wednesday that
Independence Air's pricing strategy cost Air Tran $5 million to $6 million
in the third quarter because they were forced to match its prices.
   "We do think Independence Air's strategy is not sustainable, so hopefully
that will correct itself early next year," Leonard said. "To be flying an
RJ (regional jet) at $59 fares I think is one of the silliest things I
think I've ever seen. An RJ is a very high-cost airplane."
   But Skeen said he is as confident in the airline's business plan as he w=
as
before the airline's launch. He noted that the airline has only been
flying in half of its markets for only a few months.
   "We are operating in a very difficult environment. Fuel costs and the
overall industry outlook is a lot worse than when we announced our plan,"
Skeen said. "But in terms of our business plan, we're still very
confident."
   Still, the company's chief financial officer, Richard Surratt, acknowedg=
ed
Wednesday that the airline would at least listen to proposals from
traditional carriers who might seek FLYi as a regional partner, like its
former relationship with United.
   "If somebody did call, we would be remiss not to consider that," Surratt
said.
   In its conference call with analysts Wednesday, Independence Air declined
to give analysts guidance on its cash projections for the coming months,
saying the company was meeting with creditors to see if it can reduce
upcoming payments, particularly as a large aircraft payment looms in
January.
   Skeen refused to speculate Wednesday on the possibility of bankruptcy.
   "Our focus is working real hard on strengthening our liquidity, and
hopefully we'll be able to do that" in the coming months, he said.

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Copyright 2004 AP

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