NYTimes.com Article: Pilots' Study Warns US Air on Finances

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Pilots' Study Warns US Air on Finances

August 13, 2004
 By MICHELINE MAYNARD





US Airways will go out of business within months if it
cannot significantly cut its costs and adopt a leaner
operating structure, a financial report commissioned by its
pilots union concluded yesterday.

The analysis, which was done by Glanzer and Company, an
investment banking firm, found that the airline would risk
filing for a second Chapter 11 bankruptcy by mid-September,
if it missed a series of crucial financial deadlines.

The confidential report was drafted for the Air Line Pilots
Association, which is in talks with US Airways on its share
of $800 million cuts in wages and benefits that the airline
is seeking from its unions, which gave the company two sets
of concessions in bankruptcy.

The 3,400-member pilots union refused to comment on the
findings, which were distributed to its members. But a
spokesman, Jack Stephan, said the pilots "do not disagree
in principle with the conclusions reached by our investment
banker."

The airline, in a statement, also declined to discuss the
specifics but said it was in "the best interests of the
company and employees" to reach agreement quickly with its
unions.

In all, US Airways is racing to cut $1.5 billion from its
operations, including the labor cuts, to avoid another
bankruptcy filing. The airline, which emerged from
bankruptcy in April 2003, is taking apart its hub-and-spoke
operations to focus instead on direct flights from airports
in Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington, and
compete with low-fare airlines that have grabbed market
share from those cities.

But there has been resistance to US Airways' push for
cutbacks among employees who are skeptical that the
situation is really so dire, both within the pilots union
and among other labor groups.

The Glanzer report, while commissioned by the pilots union,
appeared to bolster US Airways' case.

Absent a new cost structure, the report said US Airways
could cease to operate within 180 to 270 days - meaning
sometime between March and June, regardless of whether it
seeks bankruptcy protection.

The report also said the likelihood of a filing by
mid-September was high unless cuts are made. The report
noted that US Airways is required to make cash
contributions of $130 million to its employee pension plans
on Sept. 15.

Failing to make them could lead to liens or other penalties
from the Internal Revenue Service, and cause lenders to
seek repayment of their liabilities. That would create the
equivalent of "a run on the bank," the report emphasized.
"If anyone of them begins executing on these capital calls,
they all will, and the airline will fail."

At the end of September, US Airways also faces a series of
covenants on its federal loan guarantee package, and it
must satisfy lending requirements of aircraft companies
including Bombardier, Embraer and General Electric.

If it missed those covenants, the federal Air
Transportation Stabilization Board would be able to call
the remaining portion of its $900 million loan
"immediately," the report said.

"Unless the company is able to demonstrate that it has a
viable business plan, the A.T.S.B. would have no reason to
continue providing financing," the report stated, "and
would be better served by having its loan repaid with the
cash the company has today. At that point, the company
would cease to operate."

The loan board has shown a past willingness to negotiate,
rather than take such drastic action.

Earlier this year, the board and US Airways agreed on a
series of revisions in the terms of the airline's
seven-year loan package. US Airways made an early payment
and pledged that it would substantially reduce its losses
this year and post an operating profit next year. If the
covenants had not been changed, US Airways would have been
in default.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/13/business/13pilots.html?ex=1093406472&ei=1&en=ff46acb034f5e259


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