Re: Air Canada 'impasse' or 'breakthrough' / Worst Case Scenario

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Creditors who still have fingers in the pot want to maximize their
return.

At it's current state, AC is worth more alive than dead. (Barely.)

If they can't reach an agreement (as stipulated by Deutsche Bank and
others) to bring their costs into line, the consensus that AC would be
then worth more dead than alive.

Through many previous comments from the former and current Minister of
Transportation, the Federal Government has backed themselves into a
corner, it would be extremely unlikely they would be the first to step
in with either legislation or funding.

What likely would happen is the creditors would force the company into
receivership, and in the liquidation process, someone (like a Gerry
Schwartz) might pick up some of the better pieces. At that point, the
Federal Government might step in and make some short-term guarantees to
keep the key parts of the operation going until the transition is
complete and the new AC (flying under the WestJet name ?) has taken
form.

Aeroplan is probably the most valuable asset out there. As long as
'collectors' (and there are 20 million of them), essentially pay 5
cents for every mile that only costs 3 cents when they are redeemed,
Aeroplan will live a long life. Whether there is an airline called Air
Canada to redeem the flight rewards on is a different story.

My opinions only...

Matthew

On May 17, 2004, at 7:37 AM, Michael A. Burris wrote:

> AIRLINE:
>
> What would happen if they can not reach an agreement?
>
> Would they have to shutdown?  What does that mean for
> stranded passengers at all AC points?  Would the
> government step-in? This almost sounds like Canadian
> Airlines all over again?
>
> Mike Burris
> Cambridge, Mass
>
>
>
>
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