SFGate: Growing market in the East gives much-needed boost to Boeing/Japanese airline sees midsize 7E7 plane as good fit for far-flung cities in China

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Sunday, May 2, 2004 (SF Chronicle)
Growing market in the East gives much-needed boost to Boeing/Japanese airli=
ne sees midsize 7E7 plane as good fit for far-flung cities in China
David Armstrong, Chronicle Staff Writer


   The Boeing Co., battered by its European rival Airbus and dogged by
scandal, got a badly needed lift last week by hopping the jet stream to
Asia.
   Its $6 billion deal with All Nippon Airways for 50 of the new 7E7
Dreamliners, announced Monday, puts Boeing back in the jetliner game, as
it ties the iconic American company's commercial jet division to the
high-flying economies of East Asia.
   Japanese carrier ANA will fly the first batch of 7E7s. Japanese
manufacturers will make a third of the aircraft. And fast-growing inland
cities in China will be among the first markets served by 7E7s, which
Boeing touts as exemplars of fuel-efficient, next-wave technology.
   The announcement comes just as Boeing is starting to get back on track
after a three-year downturn in the aviation industry. Earlier plans to
create a very fast Sonic Cruiser and an extra-long version of the
company's 747-400 never got off the ground due to airlines' lack of
interest.
   Then Boeing chief executive Phil Condit had to step down late last year
amid corporate governance problems.
   Some major American airlines are still parking planes in the desert, a
legacy of the post-Sept. 11, 2001, slump in travel.
   However, the aviation industry, led by manufacturers selling planes
overseas, started to show signs of life early this year. Boeing, for
instance, posted $623 million in net income in the first quarter, compared
with a $478 million loss in the year-ago quarter.
   The brightest spot in the global market is Asia, which has provided the
market muscle to lift Boeing. The company has made money this year from
defense contracting but last year lost its leadership in commercial jets
to Airbus, which sold more jetliners than Boeing for the first time.
   Good fit for midsize cities
   Boeing's new Dreamliner -- a midsize plane that will carry 200 to 300
passengers and be able to fly 9,000 miles nonstop, much farther than other
planes its size -- is a fine fit for such rapidly growing secondary cities
in the Asian market as Wuhan and Chengdu in China.
   Such cities are increasingly becoming the sites of auto plants and
factories as well as high-tech industrial parks, many created with
non-Chinese partners from Japan, Europe and the United States. Executives
at these firms need to be able to travel quickly to and from formerly
remote spots without hopping from airport to airport and enduring long,
wearying waits and anxious changes of planes.
   The 7E7, as a midsize plane, will be able to serve those cities and their
smallish airports directly from far-off points rather than funneling
passengers through one or even two changes of planes at major hub
airports.
   "Asia is growing faster than the rest of the world. We expect to sell 30
percent of our 7E7s in Asia, which usually accounts for 20 percent of all
our commercial jet sales," said Mike Bair, Boeing senior vice president
for the 7E7 project.
   Moreover, the 7E7 will allow Chicago's Boeing to steal some momentum from
Airbus, which is building the world's biggest jetliner, the A380, a jumbo
carrying 555 passengers. It will serve major airports like London's
Heathrow, New York's Kennedy, Frankfurt and San Francisco International.
   "There is a case to be made for gargantuan aircraft," said Robert Mann, =
an
aviation industry analyst. Jumbos like the A380 and Boeing's largest
plane, the 747-400, are good to have at big airports in world capitals
where passenger demand is high and airport congestion limits the number of
flights, he said. But those huge planes can't squeeze into smaller
airports.
   However, midsize planes like the 7E7 can, and Mann thinks that is where
the market is going, especially in booming Asia. Airbus makes the midsize
A330- 200, which ANA could have bought instead of the 7E7, but Boeing won
out.
   Win-win situation
   "The 7E7 is good for Boeing, and it's good for Boeing's production
partners in Japan," said Mann, president of R.W. Mann Inc. of Port
Washington, N.Y. "It's doubly significant to have some parts of the plane
made in Japan for a company (ANA) that's going to fly the plane from
there."
   Three Japanese heavy hitters -- Fuji Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy
Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries -- will help build the
Dreamliner. Bair said Boeing has a good relationship with the big Japanese
companies, which made parts for the Boeing 777 when it was introduced a
decade ago.
   ANA spokesman Tom Fredo said that having part of the 7E7 made in Japan
doesn't hurt in bringing the new offering to ANA's attention, but its
Japanese connection was not a major factor in choosing the plane.
   "If the plane hadn't met our criteria, it wouldn't matter if the whole
plane was built in Japan," Fredo said. ANA, which operates a daily nonstop
flight between Tokyo Narita and SFO, ordered the 7E7 because it has the
right size and range and will save the airline $90 million a year in
operating costs, Fredo said.
   ANA plans to fly the new plane, configured into business and economy
classes, in East Asia, including China, where the airline, Japan's second-
largest carrier, serves eight cities. It also will fly to Honolulu. While
the 7E7 could reach San Francisco from Japan, it won't, because that route
includes first-class service, which won't be offered on the Dreamliner.
   ANA also operates a lucrative freight service to China, whose economy
continues to grow at nearly 10 percent a year. "The inbound freight market
is quite good, and the outbound market is almost limitless," Fredo said.
   China has big influence
   China's growth is driving the airline industry, just as it is driving
changes in ocean shipping, steel, auto-making and other globalized
businesses.
   "We are looking to secure new members in Asia, especially China," said
Jaan Albrecht, chief executive of the Star Alliance, a global association
of airlines that book fliers on each other's flights, cluster members'
ticket counters in major airports, market jointly and make joint purchases
of jet fuel.
   "We see substantial growth in Asia, double the rates for North America a=
nd
Europe," Albrecht said of the Star Alliance, which includes United
Airlines, Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa, Thai Airways and ANA.
   Reflecting the global nature of the aviation business, 7E7 parts will be
made in far-flung places before final assembly in Seattle, where Boeing
was born. Production will start later this year in Italy, the United
Kingdom, France and Japan, as well as in Oklahoma, Connecticut, Arizona
and North Carolina, with 60 to 70 percent of the plane being made by
contractors.
   When the Dreamliner, scheduled for its first test flight in 2007, reaches
its first customers the following year, its leading-edge design should wow
travelers in Asia, where the latest, the biggest and the best has, if
possible, even more gee-whiz appeal than elsewhere in the world.
   Roomier, quieter plane
   The new plane will be slightly wider than existing midsize aircraft,
providing some precious wiggle room for passengers. It will be quieter
than older models and cheaper for airlines to operate due to its greater
fuel efficiency. The fuel efficiency, Bair said, will come about partly
because the aircraft will be made largely of light, composite materials
instead of traditional aluminium.
   "It's chiefly hardened graphite, exactly the same material that's in the
shafts of the new golf clubs," said Bair, who added that such composites,
which have long been used in military aircraft, are lighter and more
durable than aluminum.
   ANA's big purchase, at an undisclosed launch-customer discount from the =
$6
billion list price, is the only confirmed buy. Bair said Boeing is
negotiating with British Airways, Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines and Cathay
Pacific Airways. A British Airways spokeswoman confirmed the talks and
said the airline has had input into the plane's development but not yet
decided whether to buy it.
   Boeing sees a market of 3,500 aircraft worth some $400 billion in the
7E7's midsize range over the next 40 years, Bair said, "and we think we
can sell more than half of them. We think we have an airplane the world
will want. "

   E-mail David Armstrong at davidarmstrong@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx --------------=
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Copyright 2004 SF Chronicle

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