Some improvement seen in air passenger traffic By Trebor Banstetter Star-Telegram Staff Writer Passenger traffic on U.S. airlines is likely to rise during June, a consulting firm said Wednesday, but experts cautioned that a full recovery will take time. By cutting flights, airlines are finally closing the gap with the drop in demand for air travel, said Tom Klein, group president of Sabre Airline Solutions, in a briefing with reporters Wednesday. But he added that it "doesn't mean that supply and demand in the market have balanced." Sabre forecast that passenger traffic will increase 3 to 4 percent during June, compared to June 2002. Meanwhile, airlines will be offering 6 percent fewer flights during the month because of schedule reductions. That means fewer empty seats on airplanes and a greater likelihood that flights will make money. It was the latest of several predictions from analysts that the summer months could show stronger bookings for the beleaguered industry, and that some small signs of a turnaround have appeared. "For a change, many analysts and investors sound decidedly more upbeat than the airlines," said Jamie Baker, an analyst with J.P. Morgan Securities in New York, in a note to investors. But he added that the airlines "have far richer data" than most analysts and that "by no means can recovery (indicators) be called robust." Nonetheless, the newfound optimism reports helped push up airline stocks Wednesday. Fort Worth-based AMR Corp., parent of American Airlines, posted the biggest gain, rising $1.58 to close at $8.60 in trading on the New York Stock Exchange _ up 23 percent. Delta Air Lines rose $1.23 to close at $15.10, Northwest Airlines jumped $1.22 to $10.44, and Continental Airlines increased 95 cents to $14.06. Shares of Dallas-based Southwest Airlines, the only profitable large U.S. airline, increased 27 cents to $16.35. The top six airlines lost nearly $11 billion last year, the worst year on record for the industry, and two carriers _ United Airlines and US Airways _ filed for bankruptcy. Most airlines, including American, predict more losses this year. Since the economy began to slow in 2000, the major carriers have seen a steep drop in business travel, intense competition from low-fare competitors like Southwest and rising security costs following the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks. Until recently, the outlook remained bleak. During March and April, Klein said, advanced ticket purchases for June were slow. But the situation improved after the Iraq War ended in May and sales accelerated, he said. Sabre Airline Solutions is the consulting arm of Sabre Holdings, an airline ticket distribution firm based in Southlake that processes 50 percent of bookings for the airline industry. Industry observers pay close attention to the group's analysis because it has access to Sabre's booking data. Airline executives will be closely watching travel and booking trends during the next few months. The summer season is typically the most profitable for the industry. While domestic travel shows some hints of improving, demand for travel to markets in Asia remains at dramatically low levels because of the SARS outbreak, said Steve Hendrickson, a senior consulting partner at Sabre Airline Solutions. China has been the hardest hit, he said, with advanced bookings falling by as much as 94 percent compared to last year. Flights to Hong Kong, Taiwan have also suffered, as well as travel to Australia and New Zealand. The steep plunge in Asia travel is beginning to decline, Hendrickson said. "The big question is," he added, "is whether the SARS threat will continue to diminish." *************************************************** The owner of Roger's Trinbago Site/TnTisland.com Roj (Roger James) escape email mailto:ejames@xxxxxxxxx Trinbago site: www.tntisland.com Carib Brass Ctn site www.tntisland.com/caribbeanbrassconnection/ Steel Expressions www.mts.net/~ejames/se/ Mas Site: www.tntisland.com/tntrecords/mas2003/ Site of the Week: http://www.natalielaughlin.com/ TnT Webdirectory: http://search.co.tt *********************************************************