A loss of $17 billion annual revenue sets the bar prior to the Iraqi conflict. The day-by-day drop in net new bookings from the March 18 onset of hostilities onward is consistent with a growing (adding SARS impact, now precipitous) drop in travel seen by most U.S. airlines in the back half of March, continuing in April. US carriers have had highly publicized if temporary quarantines of aircraft returning from Asia. Cathay and Dragon have canceled more than 25% of flights in recent days, while HKG has seen more than 30% of all flights canceled. AC has canceled its flights to HKG, PEK, SHA. Continental canceled its EWR-HKG. AI pilots won't fly to the region, period. Most US carriers serve middle-eastern cities in Syria, Jordan, Iran, Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar via code-share or alliance. Likewise, most serve Asian cities in Japan, China, Taiwan, Viet Nam, Thailand, KL, Singapore. Even if carrier A does not fly nonstop to point B, global alliances and code-sharing mean that when one carrier sneezes, all its partners catch cold. In the highly linked network airline world, there is little remaining financial insulation, except for carriers like Southwest who operate in relative isolation. - Bob clay.wardlow@xxxxxxxx wrote: > > Well, the industry has been failing long before the war and SARS came into play. I'm just a little tired of hearing that as the reason they continue to do poorly. > > I'm sure that its an issue with travel to the middle east and to Asia, but honestly, is that where all the money comes from so that's why they aren't doing well? Doesn't sound right to me. How many flights a day does American (for example) have to/from the Middle East? Let me look on their website real fast... hummm... looks like they don't have any flights to the Middle East as true AA flights. And it looks like Tokyo is the only non-codeshare city in Asia. > > Not trying to be rude or anything... it's just starting to irritate me to read airline press releases that site Iraq and SARS for the reason they are not doing so well. That's all. :-) > > Clay - SEA > > -----Original Message----- > From: RWM [mailto:RWM@xxxxxxxxxx] > Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 10:57 AM > Subject: Re: Excuses > > clay.wardlow@xxxxxxxx wrote: > > > > I'm just wondering... how much of an impact the war and SARS really has on airlines. To be honest, when I read things from the airlines blaming the war in Iraq and SARS for their continued troubles it just seems like excuses. I can possibly see how SARS would impact operations to/from Asia, but to impact it so bad that the whole airline system is suffering??? Also, with the war going as well as it is for the US, I am not, nor do I know of anyone that is cutting back on travel. > > > > Do these just seem like sad excuses to anyone else but me? > > > > Clay - SEA > > "Excuses"? I'll leave it to you to do the math... After the disappearance of > $17 billion in U.S. industry revenue from year 2000 to year 2002, now we have > new market overhangs from Iraq and SARS, for which Toronto appears to be the > North American epicenter. > > - Bob Mann > -- > R.W. Mann & Company, Inc. >> Airline Industry Analysis and Consulting > Port Washington, NY 11050 >> tel 516-944-0900, fax 516-944-7280 > mailto:info@xxxxxxxxxx >> URL http://www.RWMann.com/ > > "April 09, 2003 > U.S. airline travel hits low for '03 > > (Reuters) - Airlines said Wednesday their projections on the impact of the Iraq > war on their business remain accurate, as air travel on U.S. airlines fell to > its lowest point this year. > > ``The world situation continues to play havoc with the airline marketplace,'' > said Jim May, president of the Air Transport Association, the industry's lead > trade organization. May said the SARS virus outbreak has also hurt business. > > The association said the biggest U.S. carriers had their worst week so far in > 2003 last week, as systemwide traffic was off 17.4 percent. Domestic air travel > fell almost 15 percent, while transatlantic and transpacific travel was off more > than 25 percent, the association reported."