Bookings fall as fliers just wing it By Barbara De Lollis, USA TODAY War with Iraq could have some painful consequences for the nation's ailing= =20 travel industry, but it could also hasten recovery, say some executives in= =20 the business.The war threat has created uncertainty that's causing=20 companies and consumers to delay investments and spending plans =97 a damper= =20 on travel."If there's a short war, we think that will be good for the=20 industry," says US Airways CEO David Siegel. "It's going to eliminate that= =20 fear and that overhang that the economy is feeling."USA TODAY interviewed=20 Siegel and two other executives Wednesday in a roundtable discussion about= =20 business travel and the possible effect of war.Domestic travel demand=20 dipped about 8% in the months after the Gulf War, while international=20 travel demand fell as much as 25%.War jitters have already hurt bookings=20 this year and prompted some companies to adopt temporary, flexible refund=20 policies.US Airways, which expects to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy=20 reorganization soon, doesn't fear war, Siegel says, because it made the=20 deepest cuts in capacity and costs among major airlines since Sept. 11. He= =20 doubts demand for air travel will slip as much as it did during the Gulf=20 War 12 years ago. Predicting business is tricky, however, because more travelers are booking= =20 at the last minute, says Steve Holmes, CEO of Cendant's hotel and=20 time-share division. Concerns about war and terrorism, economic uncertainty= =20 and the proliferation of Web sites offering last-minute travel deals are=20 fueling last-minute bookings, travel experts say.Cendant, the world's=20 largest franchiser of hotels, including brands Days Inn, Travelodge and=20 Howard Johnson, is seeing fewer advance bookings for spring and summer than= =20 it has in past years, but Holmes expects business will eventually improve=20 mostly because of short-notice leisure bookings."We're cautious," Holmes=20 says. "We're pretty much on our plan for spring based on what we've seen=20 through February. We think we're going to have to become accustomed to a=20 shorter booking pattern."As with the Gulf War last decade, this potential=20 war began weakening travel demand and pricing months ahead of time. Siegel= =20 says demand started softening after President Bush's speech on Iraq to the= =20 United Nations in September. At least half the potential impact of a war is reflected in prices today,=20 he says."We shouldn't overlook the fact that this is probably the greatest= =20 time from a consumer standpoint when it comes to buying travel," says John= =20 Marks, chairman of the Travel Industry Association of America and president= =20 of the San Francisco Convention and Visitors Bureau. "I can't remember a=20 time =97 be it airline travel, hotel pricing, all that goes along with it = =97=20 that has been more advantageous to the consumer."If there is a war, Marks=20 predicts cities that rely heavily on travelers who fly in will suffer more= =20 than those that are drive-to destinations.More than 80% of San Francisco's= =20 overnight guests fly there, he says. International gateway cities, such as= =20 Boston, New York and Miami, will also probably take a bigger hit, because=20 of the expected drop-off in international travel, he says. *************************************************** The owner of Roger's Trinbago Site/TnTisland.com Roj (Roger James) escape email mailto:ejames@escape.ca Trinbago site: www.tntisland.com Carib Brass Ctn site www.tntisland.com/caribbeanbrassconnection/ Steel Expressions www.mts.net/~ejames/se/ Site of the Week: http://www.dbombo.net/muddyangels/ TnT Webdirectory: http://search.co.tt *********************************************************