ExpressJet shares plunge on regional jet deferral

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ExpressJet shares plunge on regional jet deferral  =

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Thursday February 13, 5:54 PM EST =


(Updates with closing stock prices)

By Meredith Grossman Dubner

CHICAGO, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Shares of regional air carrier ExpressJet Hol=
dings Inc. (XJT) plummeted 28 percent on Thursday in their biggest one-da=
y percentage loss ever, after the airline said it would slow the delivery=
 of 60 regional jets.

The stock, the top percentage loser on the New York Stock Exchange on Thu=
rsday, plunged after the carrier said late Wednesday it was rescheduling =
the delivery of 60 of its 78 remaining firm orders from Brazil's Embraer =
(EMBR4) (ERJ).

Airlines have been postponing aircraft deliveries since the Sept. 11 atta=
cks because there is not enough demand to fill planes.

Houston-based ExpressJet, which went public last April, sells all of its =
capacity to Continental Airlines (CAL) and operates as Continental Expres=
s, which flies 196 regional jets.

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Jim Higgins, analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, said the news was fur=
ther evidence of the imbalance between the industry's supply and demand a=
nd was particularly worrisome because it involved small aircraft that wer=
e to be added at relatively low costs.

"We have long worried about the saturation in regional jet capacity past =
2004 for a number of carriers," Higgins said in a research note. "Express=
Jet's slowing of deliveries, the reason for which appears to be a hard lo=
ok at the economics of regional jets in a revenue environment that has pr=
obably changed forever, does nothing to diminish that concern."

The regional carrier said the move would hurt its 2003 earnings per share=
 by 2 cents to 4 cents. ExpressJet also said it now expects 2004 earnings=
 per share to be off by 16 cents to 18 cents versus estimates under its p=
revious fleet plan.

Another analyst, though, said the stock decline was exacerbated by the ne=
gative tone permeating the industry.

"How many other airlines are even making any money in this environment?" =
said Tony Cristello, analyst at BB&T Capital Markets. "The company is sti=
ll going to have some pretty good earnings growth. It also creates greate=
r visibility because now we see deliveries into 2005 and 2006. So I don't=
 necessarily think it's such a bad thing."

Still, Cristello lowered his 2003 earnings estimate for ExpressJet to $1.=
48 per share from a previous forecast of $1.50. For 2004, Cristello revis=
ed his earnings forecast to $1.58 per share from a previous estimate of $=
1.74 a share.

Analysts had expected ExpressJet to earn $1.51 a share for 2003 and $1.72=
 a share for 2004, according to Thomson First Call.

Embraer will now deliver 36 of the ERJ-145XR 50-seat jets to ExpressJet i=
nstead of 48 in 2003, and will deliver 21 planes instead of 36 in 2004. I=
n 2005, however, Embraer will deliver 21 jets instead of two and it will =
deliver another eight planes to ExpressJet in 2006.

ExpressJet said Continental proposed the changes as the airline struggles=
 to match capacity with demand. In exchange, Continental extended Express=
Jet's guarantee as the exclusive provider of regional jet service in its =
hubs by one year, to Jan. 1, 2007.

Embraer, the world's fourth-largest builder of commercial aircraft, trimm=
ed its delivery goals as a result of the new agreement.

In Sao Paulo trading, Embraer shares closed down 12 percent, hitting a 16=
-month low. ExpressJet is Embraer's top customer, representing about 22 p=
ercent of its backlog, according to Merrill Lynch.

ExpressJet shares closed down 28 percent, or $3.27, at $8.25 on the New Y=
ork Stock Exchange. Continental ended down 2.7 percent, or 15 cents, at $=
5.45 on the NYSE. (Additional reporting by Carlos A. DeJuana in Sao Paulo=
) =



=A92003 Reuters Limited. =


Roger
EWROPS

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