NYTimes.com Article: ExpressJet Shares Plunge on Deferral

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ExpressJet Shares Plunge on Deferral

February 13, 2003
By REUTERS






Filed at 12:41 p.m. ET

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Shares of regional air carrier
ExpressJet Holdings Inc. (XJT.N) plummeted 26 percent on
Thursday in their biggest one-day percentage loss ever
after the airline said it would slow the delivery of 60
regional jets.

The stock, the biggest percentage loser on the New York
Stock Exchange on Thursday, plunged after the carrier said
late Wednesday it was rescheduling the delivery of 60 of
its 78 remaining firm orders from Brazil's Embraer
(EMBR4.SA) (ERJ.N).

Airlines have been postponing aircraft deliveries since the
Sept. 11 attacks because there is not enough demand to fill
planes.

Houston-based ExpressJet, which went public last April,
sells all of its capacity to Continental Airlines (CAL.N)
and operates as Continental Express, which flies 196
regional jets.

Jim Higgins, analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, said
the news was further evidence of the imbalance between the
industry's supply and demand and was particularly worrisome
because it involved small aircraft that were to be added at
relatively low costs.

``We have long worried about the saturation in regional jet
capacity past 2004 for a number of carriers,'' Higgins said
in a research note. ``ExpressJet's slowing of deliveries,
the reason for which appears to be a hard look at the
economics of regional jets in a revenue environment that
has probably changed forever, does nothing to diminish that
concern.''

The regional carrier said the move would hurt its 2003
earnings per share by 2 cents to 4 cents. ExpressJet also
said it now expects 2004 earnings per share to be off by 16
cents to 18 cents vs. estimates under its previous fleet
plan.

Another analyst said the stock decline was exacerbated by
the negative tone permeating the industry.

``How many other airlines are even making any money in this
environment?'' said Tony Cristello, analyst at BB&T Capital
Markets. ``The company is still going to have some pretty
good earnings growth. It also creates greater visibility
because now we see deliveries into 2005 and 2006. So I
don't necessarily think it's such a bad thing.''

Still, Cristello lowered his 2003 earnings estimate for
ExpressJet to $1.48 per share from a previous forecast of
$1.50. For 2004, Cristello revised his earnings forecast to
$1.58 per share from a previous estimate of $1.74 a share.

Analysts had expected ExpressJet to earn $1.51 a share for
2003 and $1.72 a share for 2004, according to Thomson First
Call.

Embraer will now deliver 36 of the ERJ-145XR 50-seat jets
to ExpressJet instead of 48 in 2003, and will deliver 21
planes instead of 36 in 2004. In 2005, however, Embraer
will deliver 21 jets instead of two and it will deliver
another eight planes to ExpressJet in 2006.

ExpressJet said Continental proposed changes as the airline
struggles match capacity with demand. In exchange,
Continental extended ExpressJet's guarantee as the
exclusive provider of regional jet service in its hubs by
one year, to Jan. 1, 2007.

Embraer, the world's fourth-largest builder of commercial
aircraft, trimmed its delivery goals as a result of the new
agreement. Embraer shares fell 12 percent on the news.

ExpressJet shares were down 26 percent or $2.99 at $8.53 on
the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday afternoon.
Continental shares were down 6.6 percent on the New York
Stock Exchange.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-airlines-expressjet.html?ex=1046162954&ei=1&en=adde56a12fa2ee8c



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