Continental president sees volatile months ahead = = = = Thursday November 14, 3:34 PM EST = NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Shrunken business travel, dramatic restructu= ring by some of the largest U.S. airlines, and the looming threat of war = in Iraq could make the coming six months more volatile for the airline in= dustry than the past six, Continental Airlines (CAL) President Larry Kell= ner said on Thursday. Houston-based Continental has evaluated the possibility of a war with Ira= q and gauged that a five-day war could boost demand and be good for the a= irline, Kellner told analysts at the Salomon Smith Barney transportation = conference. A five-week war might be neutral overall, if strength in demand afterward= compensated for lack of demand during the conflict, he said. But a five-= month war could be devastating. The chance of new conflicts in Iraq, combined with the restructuring of b= ankrupt US Airways Group (UAWGQ) and dramatic cost-cutting measures at UA= L Corp.'s (UAL) United Airlines, make for "an especially volatile situati= on," he said. = Continental also said business traveler traffic in the U.S. was 37 percen= t lower in the third quarter of this year when compared with the third qu= arter of 2000. Its domestic capacity next year should be 4 percent lower than capacity t= his year, while capacity systemwide should be down about 1 percent. Continental said it expects to have $1.1 billion in cash at the end of th= e year, down from $1.3 billion on Sept. 30. It plans to finish the year w= ith 391 aircraft and end 2003 with 372 planes, after cutting its fleet do= wn from 403 planes at the end of 2001. Continental forecast that its overall costs per available seat mile will = be 2 percent to 3 percent lower this year compared with 2001. But unit co= sts should rise back up by 2 percent to 3 percent in 2003. Shares of Continental traded 15 cents higher, up more than 1.7 percent, a= t $8.80 on Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange. = =A92002 Reuters Limited. = Roger EWROPS