Re: Latest U.S. air fare hike fails, AMR warns

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If I may give my 5c worth - we are seeing an industry in BIG trouble because
airlines are so confused.  The days of a supplier driven business model are
fraying while we watch.  The distribution model has evolved so much,
airlines are actually starting to move away from suffering together.

Some carriers need to worry about leisure traffic - even as we plan for
summer travel.  Consumers know, from years of training, that a summer fare
sale is coming, so why book ahead?  Others which have been regarded as
"business" carriers, notice that the suits are not doing what they used to
anymore.  Imagine an airline pricing analysts consternation at seeing
business travelers doing the Saturday night stay over to save money. (yes
business travelers are rational) So while load factors are up, yields in a
word, suck.

Welcome to the demand driven model - customers buy from airlines directly
more than ever. Some airlines need to increase fares but the good old days
of doing it through the convenient GDS may be waning. The Internet has
really scattered the entrenched logic in pricing.  Consumers can access fare
information all over, program pricing bots to notify them of deals and so
on.  While 70% of distribution still is done via travel agents, but for the
first time agents are operating as agent for consumers not suppliers.

It is a perfect storm for the airlines - they have NO friends anymore.
Agents are booking through agencies overseas to get commissions (and
airlines can't catch them despite what they say).  Frequent fliers are not
behaving by paying full price while leisure travelers are waiting....every
part of their revenue chain is conspiring against them.  Everyone is going
to break every rule and NOBODY is paying retail.  Why should they?  Airline
service is not worth it.  I am sure you will not pay 15c per mile if you can
pay under 10c.

How can you expect the airlines to come together on pricing?  Southwest,
JetBlue and Air Tran are doing the majors in from the bottom and the top
revenue tier is gone.  TWA is gone, others are in the wings to sink.  The
Feds are getting clever about the loan guarantees.  Airport security is
something hard to describe positively or politely, but it is keeping people
away.  Airline staffs want more money. Industry safety is a dark subject.
The margin squeeze is awful. Stock analysts have virtually written off the
sector.  Who wants to be in the airline business?

There are solutions to this malaise, but that is chargeable advice.

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